Copper futures remain in backwardation, which means the long awaited sell off in this commodity will eventually occur. Given that oil futures were in backwardation for years before the decline after the mania had blown over, this would be the next shoe to drop:

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/fc?s=HGZ14.CMX

Via INO.com - Feb 2015/June 2020 Spread

Gold futures have not yet gone into backwardation, though spreads are narrowing. Gold futures contracts are not as active as other commodities, so you are obliged to trade the contract with the most volume:

http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/metals/precious/gold.html

http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=NYMEX_GC.G15_M20.E&v=dmax&t=l&a=0&w=1

Oil Markets

Close analogies can be drawn between commodities during the 1970's and present day markets. I had been searching for comparables for the oil sector from that time and present day, since there are good archival references. One of the articles you might draw up is an article in the financial post about oil prices, and how it affected the sector. Note the charts provided in the article:

http://ow.ly/GbbnQ

Are the following oil sector charts not only similar to those in the article with only small differences, if not uncanny?

http://scharts.co/1sGtGya

http://scharts.co/1C9alOQ

You might also want to take in the following chart:

http://static.safehaven.com/authors/hoye/36167_f_large.png

source: http://www.safehaven.com/article/36167/correspondence-school-phds-in-central-banking

What you might conclude is that copper prices will meet the same fate as oil prices eventually, since the super bicycle theory has blown its chain, and to expect little from the gold markets until February. I would be expecting more downside in the major Indeces by that time, if not important decisions regarding interest rates in the U.S., namely that negative rates will become an issue.

The Russian Central Bank has concluded its devaluation of the Ruble by printing currency and buying gold, which western central bankers can only dream about. Basically China and India are involved in the same. Devaluation of the U.S. Dollar will be of paramount concern, the Federal Reserve will be obliged to follow the Swiss central bank in aggressively pricing in negative rates. The Euro Zone may actually carry out its gold QE. The Canadian Central Bank might consider doing the same as Russia or China, printing currency to buy gold and banning exports by buying up all production.

Can we expect an 8x appreciation of the gold price from the low of 1130? (I'm thinking 2.52X) Perhaps not, but Rick Ackerman has a price projection:

http://www.rickackerman.com/2014/12/the-case-for-gold-rising-to-2347-or-falling-to-810/

-F6