$Gold Weekly - You Are Somewhere In Here

Where would we be in terms of a gold price recovery, judging by the recovery out of the 2009 lows?

A weekly crossover of the 13-week EMA and the 34-week EMA seems a layup.

We are perhaps at the end of a volatility smile configuration in the bullion markets, heavily skewed in the second half of its term. By my estimation, this volatility smile derivative configuration is up, denoted by the slanting grey line, and perhaps there won't be a second one to follow after the first.

But the rises and falls in price are similar to previous highs and lows in a major correction:

http://scharts.co/1iHb6W2

via SafeHaven - David Chapman

David Chapman discusses price declines in the gold markets:

http://www.safehaven.com/article/34552/gold-mini-plunges

via BCA Research - Update On Gold

BCA Research could not forsee that bond prices would remain bid on stock market corrections:

http://blog.bcaresearch.com/update-on-gold

via INO.com - Jul 2014/Jun 2020

The longest spread trade on the near futures contract has barely got going. 2020 spread contracts with near futures are popping up for comparison. Given the spread, there would be strong financial incentive to makes gains in this trade.

If the gold price is meant to go into backwardation, then the near futures price would go higher than the longest dated futures.

There should be narrowing of these spreads, as you would have had in copper and oil which have seen chronic backwardation over an extended period:

http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=NYMEX_GC.N14_M20.E&t=l&a=0&w=1&v=dmax

-F6