GBN.V Daily

If you happen to look at the daily chart for GBN.V, something stands out immediately. The recent capitulation in the stock is the largest single day of trading in a sell-off in recent years, exceeding market bottoms of the past.

Having called the bottom many times in this rout and noting that the Daily Ichimoku study for GBN.V has a long standing track record at forecasting declines in the share price, I will refrain from calling a bottom.

But, if sell-side brokers really wanted the share price to decline, they aren't getting much traction, and they're taking on additional risk with no obvious advantages or gains in terms of further declines of the GBN.V share price.

If I am correct that by adding the cash from operations over the course of the year, and taking guidance of 45,000 oz. in production, then the costs should be in the range of ~$670/oz. and the company overwhelmed with free cash flow.

IFRS has created addtional difficulty for investors at determining value and is not recognized as the new accounting method, so much so that you see GAAP still used in the press in terms of 'cash costs', and discussions on the stock amount to garbled nonsense.

What else is required? A higher gold price.

supersize:

http://www.flickr.com/photos/11747277@N07/7704291078/sizes/l/in/photostream/

http://scharts.co/PWvP9r

$Gold Weekly

The weekly gold chart is a strong demonstration on how the trade in gold is neutral at worst.

-No bear case in sight.

One of the details overlooked in the gold futures market is the absurd options chain in the near futures. This is not a normal options chain, and is meant to completely shut down price rises, but traders will more than likely be forced to trade in the spot market.

http://quotes.ino.com/options/?s=NYMEX_GC.Q12

Once futures market traders catch on that gold is still in a bull market and that price rises are not a matter of central bank money printing per se, or perhaps obvious news, and that fundamentals now are as strong as any time during the gold bull market, they'll jump in with both feet.

supersize:

http://www.flickr.com/photos/11747277@N07/7704381232/sizes/l/in/photostream/

http://scharts.co/Ovxxud

via FTAlphaville - Knight Capital's Rout = ETF Trading Woes

The recent rout of Knight Capital's share price and loss due to algorithmic trading gone berserk may cause problems with thinly traded ETFs, meaning they can fail to deliver.

I might be jumping the gun, but since the inverse correlation of GBN.V with ETFs such as TLT or LQD is so strong, then problems in the trading world can have a direct effect on GBN.V share prices. U.S. treasuries might continue to appreciate in value, but the ETFs themselves might be at risk if there are problems in the banking sector.

http://www.indexuniverse.com/hot-topics/12754-knights-troubles--etf-trading-woes.html

This kind of exogenous event might lead to share price advances in GBN.V. On the same topic of corporate finance, the following excellent article on the markets should be taken into consideration:

http://www.safehaven.com/article/26392/benighted-policymakers-dont-stand-a-chance-again

Bear Market In Stocks = Bear Market In Gold Equities?

So far the bear market in TSX Venture and TSX has meant a bear market in gold equities in the last year and a half. Its a topic of major concern, given the context.

http://www.safehaven.com/article/26372/will-a-bear-market-in-stocks-hurt-gold-stocks

-F6