Re: The Favourable Lie - An Example Of Net Present Value
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posted on
Feb 28, 2012 03:35PM
Saskatchewan's SECRET Gold Mining Development.
Net Present Value
A demonstration of how Net Present Value declines in a low interest rate environment is the following chart. Of course, gold will rise in the same environment.
A negative real interest rate is the cause as much as the decline in the discount rate, because there is a drastic change in the Net Present Value calculation going forward. It looks like rising costs, but in actual matter of fact, your returns are falling directy behind inflation.
It would be the inverse for gold-related assets. Most large miners have relatively exposure to advances in the gold price, because they mostly mine low-grade disseminated deposits as well as copper deposits with gold by-product.
But the miners with direct exposure to gold price advances in narrow-vein deposits with robust grades are the most likely to have exposed leverage to the gold price and see major advances in their Net Present Value. Quite the inverse of the example below.
If your Net Present Value is affected, then your IRR, your Internal Rate Of Return is directly affected.
Jonathan Ratner Feb 28, 2012 – 1:17 PM ET | Last Updated: Feb 28, 2012 2:16 PM ET
Courtesy Thompson Creek Metals
Ferromolybdenum smelting at Thompson Creek's Langeloth plant west of Pittsburgh. The alloy is needed to produce a type of stainless steel critical to water desalination plants.
The stock fell more than 13% as analyst Jorge Beristain cut his rating to sell from hold and lowered his price target to US$7.50 from US$8.50.
In addition to the weak results, he noted that Thompson Creek’s capex budget increase of US$355-million is equivalent to about 25% of its market cap.
The impact of higher projected spending is primarily responsible for the lower net present value attributed to the stock.