The Waiting Game
posted on
Jun 07, 2014 07:54PM
Developing large acreage positions of unconventional and conventional oil and gas resources
Hi all, I'm a new member to this forum and I have been an investor in oil exploration companies for over 35 years. I have been an investor in Falcon oil and gas since 2011 and I have added to my position at the end of 2013 and up to May this year to avail of the price dips. Like some of you, I plan to attend the Falcon o & g roadshow with proactive investors in Toronto on the 12th June to get some feedback from management. As a longtime investors in development oil and gas companies, I have gotten used to the waiting game. Therefore I thought I might share some of my experiences investing in this sector with you.
Over a period of 10 months in 2007/08, I acquired stock in Brigham Exploration, an early stage oil exploration company who had acquired 415,000 acres (375,000 acres in the Bakken shale in North Dakota) and they had drilled approx 5 wells with 2 of these commencing production. My sp averaged at $4.62 for the lot with 120.54M issued shares. Using Falcon's evaluation strategy, this equates to $1,310 per acre. As news started to come out the share price was very volatile with gains of up to 20% per day and then all the gains lost in the next week or so. The volatility remained but the price continued to rise and I sold out in 2010 at $19. In Q4 2011, the company was acquired by statoil for $4.4B at an sp of $36.50 which valued the total acreage at $10,600 per acre....yes, that is correct. Im not greedy as I got my share of the prize !
Since this investment, I have looked at many companies in the sector and I finally settled on Falcon which I believe is the next great opportunity. In my view the best hope in the short term will come from Hungary & SA but as my example outlined earlier, until oil is discovered in commercially viable quantities, the sp will not increase significantly.
However, this is a waiting game so be patient to reap the rewards. Thats my plan and it has always worked for me in the past. Fingers crossed.......