>Do you think it is possible that Falcons SP can reach 100.00$ one day in the future, like UPL did ?

Unlikely. Just for fun, lets look at a very optimistic scenario. First, remember Duverney Oil? If not, here is the full story:

http://calsun.canoe.ca/News/Alberta/...

Duvernay Oil to be taken over by Shell in $5.9-billion deal

Duvernay had production, but....

"Given the relatively expensive acquisition metrics, it appears clear that Shell is paying for Duvernay’s unbooked upside,” Friess wrote in a note.

Friess estimates Duvernay’s future drilling inventory has a reserve upside of 6.1 trillion cubic feet of natural gas — about six times its currently booked reserve base.

So here we have an example of Shell paying 1 billion per TCF of unbooked upside, not actual reserves.

So what is Falcons 'unbooked upside'? (assuming the Mako Trough is proven to be economical)

The P90 number for the gas within Falcons production licenses is 25.8 TCF. Taking into account that the JV covers 75% of the production license, of which Falcon has 33% ownership, and that the remaining 25% of the production license is 100% owned by Falcon, this leaves 12.83 TCF net to Falcon.

(12.83 TCF X $1 billion / TCF) / 596 million shares = $21.00 / share

Just to be clear, I'm not saying that $21.00 is my target price for Falcon, I'm just trying to answer the question as best I can :)