Eric, I respect the analysis but I think you're selling the Cowboys short. I've taken a look at the schedule and it's the 4th weakest schedule in the league! See the 2016 schedule strength of all teams here.

IF they can stay healthy (a big IF), they can go 12-4 this year. That should get them home team advantage because the 7 toughest schedules belong to NFC teams this year, including the Falcons, Cards, Saints and Hawks.

The Cowboys will not have a better shot at going to the Super Bowl than this year. They are healthy, the schedule is weak and they don't have much time left with Witten, so they are going to put it all on the line this year.

Howard