Probability of success of horizontal frac well = 0.90

Probability that 70% of 329,000 acres are productive = 0.90

Target Price = 6.76 (NAV/Share) * 0.90 * 0.90 = $5.48 (risked)

Major Players:

Talisman,TLM,800,000 acres

Questerre,QEC,351,000 acres

Forest Oil,?,263,000 acres

Gastem,GMR,?

Junex,JNX,~800,000 acres

Questerre had a webcast yesterday, it explains the situation quite well.

I own QEC and JNX.

JNX should have be a higher stock price than GMR