Re: Fill in the numbers please- a speculative math exercise
in response to
by
posted on
Jun 05, 2012 12:30PM
Crystallex International Corporation is a Canadian-based gold company with a successful record of developing and operating gold mines in Venezuela and elsewhere in South America
glad i'm not the only guy seeing more than worst case.
the figures used for $500 million are used by posters who are looking rock bottom/worst case which is still a 4 bagger.
Lets take the best case just to show the difference.
Debt doesn't change but lets add on an extra $50 million for taking this the distance.
Debt $250 million
Now lets take our full award and interest. Lets bump $3.8 billion award and give $200 million interest which isn't unreasonable to $4 billion.
Take off $250 million debt leaving $3.75 billion
Take off taxes (pick a number) which should leave us around $2.75 billion
Tenor gets around $960 million
Management gets $70 million on first $700 million and $40 million on the remaining $2 billion so $110 million.
That leaves us poor shareholders with $1.68 billion.
Round up our share count to 400 million with conversion of options and we have a figure of $4.20 a share.
This is a very rough calculation but if we can sit here and look at worst case we should also look at best case. When I say I believe we will get over a $1 a share it is based on not waiting over a year and the money is guaranteed. That whole bird in a hand vs the bush story. I can see as high as $2 within a year to settle.