I'm not dwelling on the Dec. 23 date
posted on
Dec 14, 2011 01:01AM
Crystallex International Corporation is a Canadian-based gold company with a successful record of developing and operating gold mines in Venezuela and elsewhere in South America
Yes, it will certainly be nice to get the financing in place and pay off the current notes by the due date. But, what if that doesn't happen? It seems like alot of people here see that situation as akin to a nuclear meltdown, but in reality, what are we really looking at? I think we're looking at a situation where the terms of the note have been breached -- simple as that. So, what does that mean to KRY? I think it means that the noteholders likely have a meritorious legal claim against KRY for the breach, a claim that has thus far been twice rejected by courts because there was no actual breach at the time the noteholders filed those lawsuits. That claim would likely be for the principal and accrued interest, any penalties built into the terms of the note, ongoing interest and costs of collection (attorney's fees). Does it mean the noteholders own the company? No. It likely means that the noteholders would need to initiate yet another lawsuit, take it all the way through the legal process, and obtain a judgment -- all of which takes time. Can the noteholders still be paid off during that process? Sure. If they do obtain a judgment, does it mean they now own the company? No. They would be able to use the judgment to try to execute on the company's assets to satisfy the judgment. But, they're only entitled to the amount of the judgment, which is fairly de minimis compared to the stated value of our as of yet unliquidated arbitration claim.
And as I said before, I'm not as concerned about the other perceived nuclear meltdown (bankruptcy) in KRY's case as I would be with just about any other company I'm invested in. In most cases, a liquidation bankruptcy leaves little to no value for the shareholders and therefore shareholders generally get zilch. In KRY's situtation, however, its major asset is the unliquidated arbitration claim (and whatever small amount of cash and existing equipment is left). Let's say, with interest, the bondholder's claim escalates to $150 mil. with penalties, interest and attorney's fees. Because KRY has no substantial assets other than the arbitration claim, that $150 mil can only be realistically satisfied if KRY obtains and collects the arbitration award. Conservatively, let's say the arb panel awards KRY $600 mil. After the bondholders claim is paid, that still leaves $450 mil for shareholders (roughly $1.23/sh). In most bankruptcy cases where shareholders get zero, my understanding is it's becuase the company's liabilities exceed its assets. I don't see that as the case with KRY. The arbitration claim, while still unliquidated, is a major asset worth far more than KRY's liabilities to creditors.
I obviously haven't seen the terms of the notes, but I wouldn't expect them to be too out of the ordinary. All of this is just my opinion.