gw, the latest round of nationalizations is very different than the oil nationalizations a couple of years ago...

recently, everything that hugo has nationalized has been out of absolute desperation and necessity...

i.e. many of the rigs/services etc that he just "nationalized" were already shut down because the vendors "walked away" due to lack of payment...if the IMF decides to get off thier butts and award some of the existing claimants at icsid then that will push hugo's problems to an unimaginable extreme....ven global assets will be frozen and he will be left with no money, no trading partners, no options...

imo he had no choice but to claim "nationalization"....he damn sure cant afford to pay the back debts to these companies....so claim "nationalization" and try to continue pumping oil....

problem is that he cant afford to pay his own workers to do the same job the companies were doing even without the massive debt load....and very few investors seem anxious to invest in venezuela at all right now...lots of good p/r from china, japan, etc but the money does'nt seem to be arriving...and more and more concern about arbitration clauses/etc....you can only conduct bad business so long before nobody will deal with you....

bottom line...i think he's completely screwed... coup imminent! arbitration/permit/whatever, i'm beginning to think whatever compensation we recieve will come probably under a new administration....i can see where the IMF will be loaning money to a new govt in venezuela very soon to try and repair hugo's "socialist revolution" and get the machine rolling again.....

maybe the true question is: who will outlast who? kry or hugo? either way we should get some news soon that will at least move the PPS...