Re: BFS weekly expectations.
in response to
by
posted on
Nov 03, 2012 07:08PM
CUU own 25% Schaft Creek: proven/probable min. reserves/940.8m tonnes = 0.27% copper, 0.19 g/t gold, 0.018% moly and 1.72 g/t silver containing: 5.6b lbs copper, 5.8m ounces gold, 363.5m lbs moly and 51.7m ounces silver; (Recoverable CuEq 0.46%)
As I previously indicated, most are kidding themselves that the BFS results will be as good as the figures expressed on this site. CAPEX numbers will be significantly higher than most expect and it is becoming more and more apparent that the delays in releasing the BFS have been the direct result of this.
Well, I think you raise some important concerns, and these represent some of the things that could affect a really good buyout price. However, I'm not sure how helpful the sweeping generalizations made by using the word "most"are. As far as I recall, there are widely varying opinions on the BFS numbers, so I'm not sure what you mean by "most" in this instance. Will the BFS beat the 2008 PFS? By how much? Will we have double the NPV? Triple? More?
"Significantly higher" CAPEX numbers than "most" expect? I guess we'll see how much. As I've stated a few times, I am in the camp that thinks the CAPEX will be higher. But I think a CAPEX of $4.5-5 billion, even if we got that high, could easily be accommodated by greater throughput and a higher grade starter pit. So what kind of numbers are you thinking for the CAPEX?
I kind of see $2-2.50 as a minimum exit point if something goes wrong (roughly based on 2008 PFS NPV of 2.76 billion) ... I am hoping for more upside, that is for sure.