I have spoken out here a few times against the theory that there has been constant manipulation in this stock for the past five years. However, I do think that there has been some "carefully orchestrated maneouvring" in the past few weeks.

Rumours are that the conditional bid offer was probably for around $1.20 to $1.40 per share.

Whoever put in the "feeler bid" was able to create a market frenzy, enough to move millions of shares in just a few days. They also knew that an initial offer would probably be rejected.

By letting the news slip on this one, and forcing CLL to admit that they had received an offer, they were able to set a market price under a dollar and possibly, through the use of assorted brokers, able to scoop up dozens of millions of shares at that price. Many millions more will trade today, including some from disappointed retail holders who think that they let "the" opportunity slip through their fingers.

Let's say that the potential purchaser has accumulated 30% of the outstanding shares in this past month. Now they can wait a few days and submit a formal offer for a higher price that is announced publicly. They need to obtain a much smaller number of shares to gain control.

Gusella and the insiders don't control an appreciable percentage of the float, from my understanding. If a formal bid comes through now (and I bet it will, within the week), then the bigger institutional holders will have complete control of the fate of this company. How many shares did institutions collect (and still hold) under a dollar? And how many of them would be happy with an offer at close to $2? There is no way that Gusella could hold on to his company if that happened. Despite appearances to the contrary this morning, as John Mauldin would say, the Endgame is Now for Connacher. Gusella's only hope is a JV partner so he doesn't have to give up the whole company, and any potential JV partner's bargaining position just became a lot stronger.