I don't know much about the technologies behind shale oil, or their costs, but I wouldn't worry much:
ONE - the existance of vast shale oil deposits has been known for decades.
TWO - it also has been known that the cost of extraction has precluded the development of these deposits for decades.
THREE - the cost of developing and producing shsale oil deposits will act as a floor for oil sands.
FOUR - this cost would appear - by market behavious - to be in excess of $100/bbl, which oil sands can live with.
FIVE - it will take 10 - 20 years to actually bring shale oil to market.
When will we hear any results of winter driling?