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Connacher is a growing exploration, development and production company with a focus on producing bitumen and expanding its in-situ oil sands projects located near Fort McMurray, Alberta

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Message: Re: Scotia Capital new CLL SP target
2
Jan 06, 2010 11:25AM

Hi Spide.

Just come back from tennis and read the full report.

They have CLL 1 year target at $1.6 and 2 year target at $2 per share based on the risk adjusted value. It seems that all major investment houses evaluating the oilsands based on the same criteria. They upgraded the energy sector based on the new Oil and NG prices for 2010 and 2011. This is what they say about the sector:

We have increased our WTI price assumptions slightly to US$78/bbl (+7%) in 2010 and
US$80/bbl (+7%) in 2011 and beyond.
■ We have increased our Henry Hub assumptions by $0.25/MMBtu in both 2010 and 2011 to $5.75/MMBtu and $6.75/MMBtu, respectively. Our long-term assumption of
US$7.00/MMBtu remains unchanged.
Implications
■ On average cash flow estimates rise slightly by 5% in 2010 while NAV estimates are up 24% reflecting an increased long term WTI price of US$80/bbl (versus US$75/bbl
previously) while our one-year targets are up 15%.
■ We have downgraded Nexen to 2-Sector Perform and Canadian Oil Sands Trust to 3-Sector Underperform due to relative valuation.
■ We have upgraded UTS Energy to 2-Sector Perform from 3-Sector Underperform due to an increase in NAV (lower discount rate and higher oil price) as well as a lack of news flow on Fort Hills until Q4/10.
Recommendation
■ Our favourite stocks (all rated 1-Sector Outperform) are Canadian Natural Resources,
EnCana, and Talisman Energy.

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