Re: Underperforming
in response to
by
posted on
Jun 26, 2008 04:21PM
Connacher is a growing exploration, development and production company with a focus on producing bitumen and expanding its in-situ oil sands projects located near Fort McMurray, Alberta
CLL is a long term play no doubt there but the small increase year over year doesn't add up with all the positive's added over the past 12 months. Maybe it does for you.
Actually it does add up,,The SP was driven by speculation to over $6.00 a share a few years back ( as many companies just starting are) and was kicked down to real market value once actual production started.It's my opinion that the SP is now driven more by actual production levels than speculation. Now if you go back to this time last year CLL was trading in the $3.60 to $3.75 range,, today it's in the $4.35 to $4.50 range( that's this weeks number and the TSX tanked this week,* days ago the SP was in the $4.70- $4.85 range). So a 20 - 30 percent increase in SP is a fair reflection of all the good news of the last 12 months and current production levels.
Dilution isn't the answer, financing at the proper time is,
The proper time by definition means, the time at which a decision is made ( based on ALL current and possible future market conditions) to acquire financing when one believes the best deal can be acquired.
like I posted to MDog if DG thought he may have received approval earlier then it would have been a good move, hindsight shows not, I guess I have my thoughts and you have yours.
Mdog stated many people were saying that approval would come earlier than expected ( more than likely boiler room pumpers) and he didn't know if DG subscribed to that opinion. Anytime financing can be acquired without dilution is a good move.
The price spike has gone, gone back to a small increase year over year, with countless positive events. With all these positives in our bag, maybe you can answer what is holding back our company?
Nothing is holding the company back,,the TSX has crashed the last week or so. Prior to that the trading range was over $4.70. At current production levels I'd say that's about right. SP is being tied to production levels.
Please don't tell me that you think the interest they are earning covers the interest they are paying?
You obviously don't think they are..Hell all they had to do is drop it into a savings account to get over 4.25%.. Even an amateur day trader can get a 10.5% ROI..Look whatever you think of the financing deal it was the right thing to do considering the market issues of the time.
Let me ask you a question, if you were living in a house with a mortgage, and wanted to add on to that house, but needed an inspector to approve it. The inspector says it may take 9-12 months for approval. Would you break your current mortgage, pay a fee for breaking that mortgage, take out a mortgage for the entire project, at higher rates, put the extra cash into a lower paying interest account and hang on for approval?
Hypothetical questions are fun.. It's hard to compare financing options between corporations and private citizens.
1st of all there are many options available today to finance additions without breaking your mortgage, ever heard of a secured line of credit? Many options are available that blend mortgage capitol with a line of credit.
2nd of all I'd be smart to do the work in bad market conditions ( if I had the cash) cause labour would be cheaper, I'd be stupid to finance in an uncertain market...Now if I really had to finance the project and the contractor said it would be up to a year to start work I'd have to look at the market. Under current conditions with the sub-prime mess and interest rates available from 4.5% I'd take the cash now and eat the loss if there was one, cause in -912 months rates could be double. If the market was sailing away like it was a couple of years ago I'd wait to get the financing simply because rates may drop.
I am glad you make sound decisions in making LT investments, and I'm hoping you made a great choice in CLL.
These days any oil play is a great choice.
I'm glad you can see the future so well about it AIN'T going to happen. It probably won't because of the financing gorilla costing us about $1.00 a share. I will have that beer though!
I'm not a fortune teller , I'm a realist..Your target of $6.75 by August would require an increase of 50% .....The news will be great but production levels would have to be much higher..Hey I hope you're right, my portfolio would be happy..I just don't see the news coming out to be enough to do it..About that financing Gorilla, the market doesn't frown on debt as much as dilution. At current SP levels they'd have to issue over 80 million shares to finance Algar,,trust me that kind of dilution would drop the SP at least a dollar a share.
If future pod approvals are a go and oil prices stay over $100 a barrel I'm expecting the SP to compound at around 25% per annum and be around $21 per share in 2015 when all pods are up and running..
CHEERS ON THAT BREW
I'm off to celebrate the U.S Supreme courts positive ruling on the 2nd ammendment.
Dave