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Connacher is a growing exploration, development and production company with a focus on producing bitumen and expanding its in-situ oil sands projects located near Fort McMurray, Alberta

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Message: Re: A slow month
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Jun 02, 2008 08:36AM

Onefortheroad, I remember well the lack of a boost when Pod1 was approved. However, I think there might be a bit more of a boost this time for Algar, IF it is approved. The reason for this is that we all expected Great Divide approval eventually, and the only unknowns were actually unknowns. However, for Algar, there is the underlying pressure for the Alberta Government and therefore for the EUB not to approve any more oil sands projects until "things improve." Well, we all know that CLL is about as green as it gets in the oil sands sector, but still, there is a small chance that Algar could still have its approval declined. I don't think that this is a significant risk, but a slight risk nonetheless. I would bet that some shorters consider it to be more significant than I do.

Also, I do think that there is a heavier risk from a delayed approval. Two months of delay really doesn't affect the project in the long term, but it does affect our 2010 cash flow fairly significantly. A longer delay, of three to six months, would be even worse.

Getting a final approval on Algar will be one of the last hurdles in my mind. With approval for two pods, plus what will presumably be a positive revised reserves report in early to mid-July, then I think we can finally relax and legitimately expect some upward pressure.

As far as timelines for those two events go, the webcast of the AGM seemed to indicate that Dick expects approval in the last week or last two weeks of June. That was my inference anyway, although I could have misinterpreted whatever it was that he said. And I believe that July 10th was the release date for last year's June 30th reserve update report.

Either way, I'm looking forward to seeing the stock price on the August long weekend.



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