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Connacher is a growing exploration, development and production company with a focus on producing bitumen and expanding its in-situ oil sands projects located near Fort McMurray, Alberta

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Message: Re: Speculation
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Feb 13, 2008 07:36PM

Spiderman

IMHO there is some contradiction in your post. How can someone build the company properly and on the same time had no choice but to go to market and ask for 600M notes at 10.25%?

It all started with the purchase of LUKE which cost us over $200M in cash and equity dramatically diluting oilsand assets and CLL SP. In last two years LUKE capital expenditure was 80 to $90M exceeding Luks`s net cash flow. The deficit had to be cover by Refinery and additional equity issue. Because unexpected drop in LUKE production CLL had to pull out from announced equity issue and go for convertible debenture loosing the institutional trust and putting extra pressure on CLL SP. Board of directors made the fatal mistake.

After this "accident" ORION and Connacord removed us from the Oilsand recommended list. CLL debt to cash flow in 2008/2009 will be about 4. Ratio of 2 is consider as very high risk. Without the LUKE  our debt to cash flow would not be much more then 1 to 1.5 and CLL SP would be in $5 range.

At today bitumen prices ($57 on Feb12) we need 4500 to 5000 bbl/d to brake even. I think this market is looking for low risk issue to park the cash in this uncertain times. If POD1 can achieve SOR of 3 and 10,000bbl/d production market may give us a second chance. Take over for $5 would do it for me.

JUREk


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