What's the problem?
posted on
Dec 04, 2007 12:58PM
Connacher is a growing exploration, development and production company with a focus on producing bitumen and expanding its in-situ oil sands projects located near Fort McMurray, Alberta
Much is being said about the financing deal and the lack of SP performance.It would appear that many people are becoming nervous about the fact that Connacher isn't acheiving their ( the investors) anticipated results.In in sports, the fans demand the coaches head ( regardless of he's to blame). In business investors like to go after management.
Truth of the matter is, CLL Management is doing a fantastic job, everything is proceeding according to plan. The lack of SP performance has more to do with uncontrollable market factors than it does with managements performance or lack of.
On the financing front,, Yes, it would appear the interest rate is higher than what one would pay on a new car, but the question should be, is it an exessively high rate. In the personal loan area people can borrow money anywhere from the prime rate of around 5.25% to over 18% on credit card cash advances. The determining factor would be the borrowers likelyhood of defaulting.
In business the same applies. Connacher is financing at 10.50%, which is twice the prime rate which nobody gets. My estimate is that at most this is a 4% premium. Now the question should be this, Is this rate unreasonable considering the fact that production still has not officially begun and pod 2 is still awaiting approval. I would suggest that when all things are considered it was a good financial deal.
MOST importantly, which is being overlooked, is that a higher rate of short term financing is a small price to pay for what could be the end of further dilution.
As for the SP..go back to when SP was $6 a share and divide it by the amount of fully outstanding diluted shares. You'll notice that when all things are considered the Market Cap was around the same as when SP was at $4.40. There seems to be resistance in the market to let the market cap exceed a Billion, which is understandable considering all the oil reserves in the world are no good if you can't get it out of the ground.
As for the current low prices, Come on guys, it's tax sell-off season, an annual tradition, add it other market factors and what did you expect. Huge short position as producion nears,,Again it's tax season..People knew there would be a sell-off to generate losses for tax puposes, this stock so far has been profitable for shorters.
Guys, tax season is over. production will start soon, markets will start to settle down and then, and only then will we see this stock start to reach it's potential.