primary business is mineral exploration

Royalty interest in two producing mines in Flin Flon, Manitoba

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Message: Food For Thought, ...a Buyout is not a Squeeze Play on CAA

Food For Thought, ...a Buyout is not a Squeeze Play on CAA

posted on Feb 04, 2008 08:10AM

 

Although it has not exactly been quick in comming, it is understandable that many investors are in CAA to soon take a quick profit from share price increase presented by a full NPI payment. If that's their choice, so be it.

I don't doubt however that many of the people who think that way would also be among they who would most like to see a quick buyout of the Flin Flon mines for another quick gain and possible dividend. This looks like a good quick end to the contended NPI issues etc. and at first glance might seem the best and logical thing to do.

So what would be left? Many investors would have taken their gains and moved on. CAA has no income but a pocket full of cash which could not be spent on exploration for a number of years. Pay a dividend with some of it? Invest some of it somewhere for ROI at one degree of risk or another? CAA continues to exist as a pure exploration company, albeit a cushy one. Shareprice then before any discovery is made is anyones guess. $0.40- $1.50-$2.00 ???

Obviously what I have written ensuing is largely predicated on some sequential "ifs, suppositions and turns of events". You can read it and discount it as ever playing out this way but I hope it demonstrates some of the strong cards CAA is and can be holding and we are not entirely desperate for a buyout or beggars at HBM's table. Also shows what HBM has to fear.

Personally I am absolutely not in agreement with any kind of settlement without seeing and auditing the books. To do otherwise would be accepting an offer in almost total ignorance and give total trust to HBM. I am not willing to do that and I don't care how good of a friend the new HBM, CEO is. Business is business and there are no friends in business except for fools and soft touches.

For whatever other reason Peter Jones departed HBM, I think that his replacement with a friend of Mike's is also nothing less than a dirty, crafty move on the part of HBM to try and appeal to the softer and honourable side of Mike, who they know dislikes having to use lawyers and deal in the court system, so HBM might then more easily worm their way out of this.

So, suppose the court case runs the full course. It might be a longer route but could be worth it. Also suppose as far as any friendship is concerned it only means that HBM's new CEO is man enough to bite the bullet for his company and come clean with everything because he realizes delaying can't go on for ever.

So what then? CAA has presented as strongly contending several points that in effect argue breach of contract. My personal feeling is that Mike and the CAA, BOD are not playing any games and are most likely able to prove breach on more than one point and possible fraud on others aside from what Canadian Revenue Agency might lay on.

So what then? CAA could petition for the NPI agreement to be dissolved. NPI and the .25 royalty would stop but by the time this happens CAA could have recieved at least two full NPI payments and concievably be cashed up to the tune of $6Mn. or so. Not super rich but not bad, ....... but wait a minute! If CAA is also seeking damages and if breach is proven a damages award will most likely follow. This sum has for some time been speculated from $150-$250 Mn. Even at $100Mn. or even at $50Mn. CAA is going to be quite well financed to carry on exploring the properties and bear legal costs .......or were we suing for costs too? (can't remember)

So what then? With the agreement disolved, CAA would effectively have taken the mines back from HBM and HBM would be instantly reduced by at least 60%. Possibly CAA might renegotiate the NPI argeement with HBM for much better and more definate terms and be in a strong position dealing with a more(very) desperate HBM. Does anyone think HBM would renegotiate it otherwise? Very slim chance IMO. CAA would not have to be in any big hurry to renegotiate either, just keep drilling our properties as we have been doing, we would for some time be at least as well off as any time in the last 10 years, while HBM would be rolling over in depreciated agony.

What if CAA dissolved the agreement and doesn't renegotiate it? What then? With two mines proven by production in hand and the adjacent Warbaby, bankable feasibility should be a cinch. Go to the bank, become a miner, HBM would probably be begging to get a processing contract to boost their sagging fortunes, ....or we might offer them $0.10-$0.15 on the dollar for their underutilized aging facilities. Maybe we'd be good enough to pay them with CAA shares. Essentially take over the heart and soul of HBM without buying one friggin' share.

Just to throw another carrot in the stew, suppose Mike digs up the monster he thinks has been sleeping for a few million years in the Fox River basin. What would the picture look like then? Can anyone imagine CAA as a producer mining our own properties and developing Fox? A takeover target. I bet the share price would sure be looking pretty.

Another poster to this board who's words I have great respect for, has fired back on a couple of past occassions at some HBM antagonists to the effect that, "we will see who will be buying out who". I'm not entirely sure that was completely a taunt or pure jesting and not a prophesy.

Think about it, even in pieces.

/Isaya

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