All analyst predictions are wrong more often than right, that's a proven fact, but people still like to listen to them. Anyway, most analysts are from the "ambulance chasing school" of forecasting (raise the targets when things go great and lower them when things go bad). In that case, we all can be an analyst for a day. All I have to do is switch the location of the thinking process to a certain lower part of my body and go from there.

From that perspective, the RBC target of $8 (lowered from $10) makes absolutely no sense. RBC seems to have based that target price entirely on political risks (because what FDN spills would be worth more than $8 per share). Here is the reason why they are wrong from that standpoint alone:

Scenario 1 - If the proposed mining laws, to be unveiled on June 27 (and hope they keep this date with no further delays), are absolutely draconian and there is no way that anyone would do any mining in Ecuador, I predict the ARU SP would be $2. Why? People would be dumping ARU shares but others with deep pockets and patience (after all the gold does not go away, right) could pick them up and wait for the next government to come in, hopefully with more financial sense.

Scenario 2 - If the proposed mining laws allow mining but with lots of road block, such a tough environmental rules, high taxes, royalties and yes, the dreaded WFT as well. Under this scenario, I predict that share price would remain status quo, i.e., trapped in the "twilight zone" that we are curently in now of $4.00 to $4.50 until a low ball buyout of $12 to $15 comes along when someone could not resist a bargain and takes a chance.

Scenario 3 - If the proposed mining laws welcome mining with reasonable environmental rules, taxes and royalties AND no WFT. I can see that SP gets back to the pre-April 18 level of $7.00 to $8.00, but no further. After all Ecuador is still not to be trusted in my opinion and investors will all remember that experience. A real SP boom will come with the buyout offer. That could be any price.

And that my friends ae my forecast as opposed to RBC's - equally ridiculous but likely more rasonable.

By the way, does anyone know the status of the WFT?

Someone posted eralier that the WFT is already law since it was passed by the Department of Revenues. Apparently the Ministry of Mining has nothing to do with it. If so, where are the specifics of the WFT? I don't think even in Ecuador you would pass a law for a new tax without issuing how that tax is to be levied and collected? This is one big mystery, perhaps the government wants to let it die quietly. Let's hope that is the case as well.

Meanwhile we continue our vigil........