I'm sure you all know what it means, but just in case:

from wikipedia:

Opportunity cost is the cost (sacrifice) incurred by choosing one option over an alternative one that may be equally desired. Thus, opportunity cost is the cost of pursuing one choice instead of another. Every action has an opportunity cost. For example, someone who invests $10,000 in a stock denies oneself the interest that one can earn by leaving the $10,000 dollars in a bank account instead. Opportunity cost is not restricted to monetary or financial costs: the real cost of output forgone, lost time, pleasure or any other benefit that provides utility should also be considered.

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I think it's safe to say that Ecuador is the Land of Opportunity Costs. What at first looks like an opportunity, ends up costing you dearly.

I've been wrestling with this problem of opportunity cost for some time now. I have a good deal of money tied up here, and although I don't have a loss as yet, I have certainly missed other opportunities that should probably be subtracted from my notional gain in ARU.

At some point a decision must be made. Clarity is not in abundance here, and while the govt. seems to be moving forward with their mining initiative, there are elements within the country that are equally determined to stop them. We have gone from one roadblock to another, figuratively, and now literally with the latest threat from CONAIE, which IMO should be taken seriously.

It's clear to me that Ecuador is both politically immature, and divided along very sharp lines, and at this point I have no wish to involve myself further in their affairs. It's their country. If they want to ruin it, that's their choice.

I believe Aurelian will eventually be developed, but it's anyone's guess as to when, or what the final cost will be. In the meantime, the money can be put to better use.

Therefore, I am setting a personal deadline. If the project isn't up and running by the end of August as promised, if some new obstacle is thrown in our path, I'm selling out. If the project IS up and running by August, BUT the fall election moves the government further to the left, I will also be selling.

I've been in this stock since Apr 06, just before the strike at FDN. I feel I've already given enough of my time and patience to this project, so now I'm framing an exit strategy. I've already made a decision as far as any future investment in Ecuador is concerned: They will just have to go on without me. I'm sure they'll do just fine.

Not an easy decision to make, given the size of the prize, but I have no desire to wade any further into the swamp trying to reach it. There will be other opportunities for determined bear cubs, of that I'm sure. Sad to let this one go, but if it comes to that, I'm ready for it.

Thoughts?

ebear