I really can't see the USA moving voluntarily to a gold standard - the elite has had their way for so long now, taking full advantage of the post-war reserve status of the dollar, that it's become an ingrained habit. Historically, power has never yielded quietly - it always puts up a fight, and I see no reason to believe this time is different.

What I can imagine though, is some kind of gold standard being forced on the US by the rest of the world. The broad effect of ballooning US dollar balances in exporting inflation abroad has been profound, and we seem to be near the end of the road in terms of what can be absorbed without major social upheaval. Recent events in Egypt underline this, although there's plenty of other examples to point to.

We may be at the beginning of such a move. China, Russia, Mexico and others nations are quietly rebuilding their gold reserves. This factor, more than private buying I believe, puts a floor under the gold price. Recent bilateral trade agreements (Russia/China) and trade related currency swaps (China/Africa) are part of an emerging trend to avoid the dollar as a means of international settlement. The underlying motive is energy and food security, which in an era of expanding population and shrinking resources, replaces manufactured exports feeding bloated consumerism as a main economic driver.

A peaceful transition is by no means assured, but the cost of waging war as an alternative is no longer an option. The nuclear threat of the Cold War era has receded, but still remains as a check on outsized ambition. Perhaps the time has finally come where the world can move to a more equal balance between sovereign states, with trade based on mutual need as opposed to hegemonic advantage? In that scenario, a stable currency is the prerequisite for participation. So, the question becomes, can we move towards that kind of world, or will this century, like the last, suffer the curse of imperial ambition, from whatever quarter it may emerge? Let's hope this time really is different, else we're in for one hell of a rough ride.

ebear