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Message: Re: Well there you have it...life is so simple....

I like Chris Martinson but I disagree with him on this one. The Europeans will print money because the electorate will force them to.

I wouldn't disagree with that, at least not in the near term. I'd simply point to a few advantages the EU has that don't get much press this side of the pond.

1. Over here, our perceptions are formed by corporate media with ties to Wall St. In no way does it serve their interest to paint a less than bleak picture of the EU. Note the coverage riots get, which are fairly rare over here, but that are a set feature of Euro politics going way back, along with the experience at dealing with them.

2. Taken as a whole, the EU is a less indebted, larger economy than the U.S. A rebound could be expected there sooner than here once their debt overhang is knocked back. Consolidation in the banking sector is already underway - in the corporate sector it should be faster and more far reaching, given state sponsorship, or outright ownership of some companies.

3. People in Europe get by on less than half what the US consumes in energy terms. They've been economizing and rationalizing a lower living standard than us for some time now, thus they have first mover advantage at rebuilding from a lower base because they're already half-way there.

4. Politically, the will to survive as a union is there, it just hasn't fully manifested yet. Consider the alternative in a world composed of trade blocks. If your goal is to play on a level field with Russia, China and the US, you need to be big. You also need to be well grounded financially, and the first to achieve that will attract both skills and capital.

5. Speaking of skills, the Eurozone has a larger supply of skilled workers, and the tools they need to produce. They too suffered industrial erosion, but not on the scale of the US. The core elements still exist. A lower Euro gives them a temporary trade advantage, which will help in the rebuilding of basic industry. As long as the US is a destination for flight capital, it has no such advantage as the dollar will be bid up with each new crisis.

Anyway, that's just my take on it. Who says I know anything? Not me, that's for sure <g>.

ebear


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