The upside for Mosaid Technologies Inc. (MSD-T41.440.290.70%) from its deal to acquire a huge package of wireless patents is "mind-bogging," according to one analyst, but that's assuming shareholders give the company a chance to make it happen.

Given the uncertainty around Mosaid's ability to extract royalties from the patents, it's hard to predict a value, but the numbers analysts are ballparking are huge. However, it appears Mosaid is facing significant skepticism about whether it can actually deliver -- evident in a stock that hasn't risen very much on the deal.

Northern Securities analyst Sameet Kanade estimates that the company could add $30.50 to its net asset value if it can do a good job of monetizing the patent portfolio. BMO analyst Brian Piccioni estimates that a "0.2 per cent royalty would not be outrageous for argument purposes" and that could add $17 a share to a valuation of Mosaid that BMO had previously put at $32.

However, Mr. Kanade has his doubts that Mosaid will ever get a chance to make that happen, because he thinks the company may still be sold to hostile bidder Wi-LAN Inc.

Wi-LAN has offered $38, which is clearly not enough given where Mosaid stock is trading. However, Mr. Kanade puts a 45 per cent probability on Wi-LAN raising its bid to $45 and winning over Mosaid shareholders who don't want to take the risk that Mosaid can't deliver on the patent portfolio's potential.

"We had the opportunity to garner opinions over the past 24 hours, following the announcement of the patent acquisition by MOSAID, and this transformational transaction has not yet changed investor opinion," he said.

Given that, he puts only a 20 per cent probability on Mosaid remaining independent.

With Mosaid stock trading within shooting distance of the Wi-LAN bid, Mosaid will have to get out and tell the story effectively, and fast, to drive the shares higher to the point where Wi-LAN can't pay.