US Craig-Hallum analyst report on WILN with a BUY of $15 target
posted on
Aug 01, 2011 01:20PM
Intellectual Licenses for Electronics & Communications
August 1, 2011
Institutional Research
WiLAN Inc. BUY
(WILN – $9.59 intraday) Price Target: $15
Capitalizing On The Inefficient Market For Licensing
Wireless IP. With An IP Portfolio Rapidly Increasing In
Value, A Strong Monetization Platform And Low Investor
Awareness, WiLAN Is An Attractive Stock. Initiating
Coverage With A Buy Rating And $15 Price Target.
WiLAN is a leading player in the fast-growing IP licensing and monetization industry.
WiLAN has over 1,400 patents organized into 40 ‘families’ focused predominantly on
wireless and telecom technologies. The company has signed over 250 license deals with
large industry players, often to multi-year recurring contracts.
OUR CALL
WiLAN has a unique and well positioned IP portfolio focused on the fastgrowing
and IP-dependent wireless and telecom technology sectors. While
mostly unknown to U.S. investors given its Canadian heritage, we expect
WiLAN’s profile will increase given its strong IP portfolio (1,400 patents and
growing), proven platform to profitably identify and price IP, strong track
record signing big name technology companies to long term license deals
(>250 total licenses signed life to date), and recent U.S. listing. WiLAN
typically signs multi-year license deals and recognizes revenues over the
contract life resulting in strong revenue and earnings visibility. We estimate
WiLAN has $300-$400 million in revenues under contract that hasn’t been
recognized, providing a strong revenue backlog and visibility. We estimate
overall market penetration rates are in the 30-40% range, leaving significant
future monetization potential and renewal opportunities on the current
portfolio. But with the IP market being so inefficient, we believe WiLAN can
generate substantial value by actively acquiring and licensing new IP assets.
Given the increased importance IP is playing in technology markets (e.g.
Nortel’s recent $4.5B patent sale), we believe WiLAN is well positioned to
benefit and expect the stock to trade higher as IP as an asset class continues to
gain momentum and liquidity comes into the marketplace.
INVESTMENT HIGHLIGHTS
? IP As An Asset Class – WiLAN is one of few public pure plays
addressing the fast growing intellectual property (IP) asset monetization
industry. This industry has grown from a nascent, wild-west mentality
into a $500 billion industry with all different size participants.
? IP (And Wireless In Particular) Has Strategic Benefit – With Nortel’s
IP going for 4x its expected financial value and Inter Digital (IDCC)
putting itself up for sale as a wireless IP bidding war ensues, large
technology companies are starting to view IP as an important strategic
asset and are willing to “pay up” for quality IP.
? Revenue Visibility And Balance Sheet, Both Winners – With close to
$200M in cash on the balance sheet and no debt, as well as $300-400M
in locked in revenue over the next 5 years, WiLAN is well positioned to
monetize current and new IP additions to the portfolio. In the past year,
WiLAN has added ~500 patents and growth could accelerate.
? How Good Could It Get? – We believe WiLAN is on a path to double
revenue to the $200 million range with little incremental operating costs,
and cash taxed EPS could range from
.70 to more than $1.00
demonstrating the scalability of the model.
? Initiating With Buy Rating And $15 Price Target – Our target is based
on the current IP portfolio and future patent acquisitions.