RE: I`ve become a reality based investor
posted on
Dec 06, 2005 03:12AM
I`m not sure to whom you have addressed your post. I don`t consider myself a ``sugar coating pumper``, but will respond, anyway, since I can accurately be accused of being ``bullish``.
I take no issue in your attempt to establish a ``book value`` for NPCT, nor your assessment that 30% ROI is ``exceptional.`` However, I would make the following observations:
1) Your projections of 30% earnings on NPCT`s $1.5M investment, though based on what one might consider an ``exceptional`` return, is not based on production or cost estimates. It is based solely on general ROI assumptions.
2) Most stocks trade in a price range that is a multiple of earnings (the P/E ratio) rather than ``book value``. A conservative P/E multiple might be 20. You have allowed for no P/E multiple in projecting ``price``.
3) Very few people invest in OTC stocks looking for a mere 30% return on equity.
4) If one were to use the ``book value`` as a means of projecting price, one would expect NPCT to be trading in the minus range. However, the reality is that stocks usually trade in a range much higher than merely the value of assets or equity.
5) All kinds of numbers and scenerios were put forth by Kloock in his excellent post last week. There is no need to repeat those formulas here. I will just select my own set of numbers that I believe is a fair assumption and use it as an example.
Production for ONE line is conservatively estimated to be 12,000 kilos/ month. Price per kilo is conservatively estimated to be $150. That projects out to $1.8M revenue per month x 12 months, or $21.6M year. Even if one were to assume your 30% ROE, that allows for a profit margin of $5.4M divided equally between Xact and Nanopierce for a net earning of $2.9M the first year. Divided by 200M shares fully diluted, that equates to .0145 earnings per share. With a coservative multiple of 20, the share price could reasonably be expected to be .29.
5) I believe there are two factors that will change this formula. First, I am expecting demand to be such that at least 2 lines will be needed very soon (possibly within the first quarter), doubling capacity, without doubling expenses. Secondly, I believe the P/E of 20 is extremely conservative for this discussion.
FWIW,
-zties