Re: Thought for the Day - Jeff
in response to
by
posted on
Jun 21, 2008 08:28AM
Jeff, you said,
"I can assure you that my perception of what's left of my investment in Nanopierce has been tainted by eight years of exposure to overly optimistic projections followed by a complete absence of execution for each new business venture."
"I have become a skeptic... for better or worse."
I was merely pointing out in my original post, with which you seemed to take issue, that negative isn't necessarily "realistic" and positive isn't necessarily "unrealistic."
I have no argument with your perception of what's left of your investment in Nanopierce. My portfolio's not lookin' too good either.
Here's my point, and what originally inspired me to post the quote by Susan Jeffers.
Over the past few weeks I have spent considerable time with a friend who is a major Wall Street Fund Manager that has made a lot of money for other people with aggressive growth funds. He has no history with Nanopierce, and frankly, spent less than 5 minutes patiently listening while I bored him with the details. The history holds little interest for him.
On the other hand, he spend a lot of time absorbing a hard copy of the information on the Vyta website, reading the company filings and financial data, studying market penetration assumptions, the current impact of high feed and fuel costs on the poultry industry, and grilled me thoroughly on what I knew about the published test results using Agrastim with poultry. He spent nearly two hours absorbing all the "current" information I could give him.
Now, here's a guy who has made bundles of money in the stock market for his clients. He didn't become successful by making foolish investment decisions. He has an uncanny ability to size up investment potential in a very short period of time. He does this by applying his due diligence to the CURRENT market conditions, and how the company is positioned to take advantage of the current situation.
Now, here's what I found especially insightful....
The fact that there were some failures to meet investor expectations in the past was actually percieved as a positive factor, because market skepticism can actually lead to undervaluation of a stock.
Now, I have no idea whether he will ultimately take a position in Vyta Corp. There are a number of factors he is considering that include things like the overall risk tolerance of his fund, exit timing for other positions, etc. But my point is this: I believe HIS perspective on Vyta Corp is probably VERY REALISTIC. His realsim is based on his due diligence regarding the investment potential of the company today. That's the basis of all his investment decisions.
He does not get emotionally attached to a company, even if he ownes 5, or 10 or even 15% of the outstanding. He believes that successful investing requires a decision to buy, sell or hold based on the conditions each day - and that investing decisions based on unrecognized emotions are a predictable formula for losing money.
Jeff, you are as passionate about this company as any investor I have ever encountered. Your passion happens to be negative - and because you ARE so passionate, you believe your negativism is "realistic."
I have no expectations of being able to disuade you from your passionate position. However, I am merely pointing out that it is not necessarily safe (or wise) to assume that the negative position is the realistic view, and the positive position is the unrealistic view. It could just as easily be the other way around.
It may just be that the market conditions are perfect for an all-natural feed supplement that can provide customers a 2/1 return on investment through feed cost savings.
It may also be that skeptics such as you have unknowingly contributed to an undervaluation of the stock, and may be providing a buying opportunity for those willing to abandon the emotions associated with past disappointment and, instead, take a close look at the present opportunity.
For what it's worth,
-zties