Weathermen, Roadmaps and Vyta: Some Thoughts - Geoff
posted on
May 25, 2008 07:01AM
Geoff,
I read your humorous comparison of Paul to a weatherman, and imagined him standing in front of a studio map the size of a bus, predicting sunny skies while through a window, off to the side, I could see it was snowing in Denver.
While I find the image humorous, I don’t really think it does justice to Paul, nor accurately illustrates my experience with this investment. I prefer the following:
My college age daughter has a girlfriend from Los Angeles. When finals were done, my daughter decided to drive across the country from Boston to L.A. with her friend, and then fly back home to New York where we live. Having spent 8 of the best years of my life in and out of college in the 60’s and 70’s, I understood what a great experience this would be for these girls.
There are a number of ways to plan a trip like this, most of which include some form (Map Quest or Rand McNally) of map or directions. Or, one can simply start driving in the general direction you want to go and see where one ends up. Though this was often my approach in the 60’s, the girls, though not pressed for time, had certain time constraints because of other obligations. For that reason, I was greatly relieved when on the first leg of the trip they left Boston and actually arrived at our home in central New York. Had they called me from Portland, Maine or Montreal, I would have immediately had serious doubts as to the likelihood of their successfully arriving in LA or even crossing the Rocky Mountains before winter.
Before departing our home Tuesday morning, my daughter sat down with me and Rand McNally and discussed the planned route. “How long should this take?” she asked the guy who’s supposed to know everything.
“I don’t know, maybe four days if you travel straight through.” - “If you don’t get lost, or sideswiped by a tractor-trailer on I-80,” I added silently.
The next leg was across western New York, Ohio, Indiana, and Illinois. Now I don’t want to offend any mid-westerners, but my daughter wasn’t real keen on squandering any of her precious sight-seeing time on the likes of Gary, Indiana. (Though I’m sure she burst into song when she crossed the city limits.)
Now, as a typical over-protective father, throughout that first full day of travel I wondered where they were. Did they pay too much for gas? Did they get into bad traffic? Were there any drunk drivers on the road? Were the truckers getting too close? Had they lost their way? My wife wondered aloud if we should call my daughter’s cell phone just to make sure that our 20-year-old “baby” was okay. We reluctantly decided against making the call. I was imagining they were lost somewhere in downtown Grand Rapids or Winston-Salem.
The following morning I logged into Facebook and there, on my daughter’s “Wall” I read, “Hey, Dad! We spent the night in Davenport Iowa. We’re headed to Nebraska. Just thought you’d like to know.” I was VERY pleased to know and feeling just a little sheepish about my doubts.
Somewhere just east of North Platte, Nebraska they stopped to visit another college friend and experienced An American Girl’s life on a prairie cattle farm. By this time I was no longer expecting them to call from Minneapolis or Little Rock. I haven’t even thought of calling today…..well, maybe just once.
I suppose anyone who watches the weather channel knows about the deadly tornadoes in northeastern Colorado this week. My wife dutifully reminded me that Rand-McNally had stupidly placed south-western Nebraska directly in line with the tornados that were ripping up north-eastern Colorado. The twisters had been tossing cars around like the pair of wet sneakers that were currently banging around in our clothes dryer. YIKES! Should we call?
“Hey Dad! Just calling to let you know we decided to stick around the farm here in Nebraska before heading off to Denver. It seems there have been some tornados and some of the roads are closed. Besides, we’re having fun and they have a storm shelter.”
My response was NOT one of disappointment at the delay, or an accusation that, “Those girls couldn’t execute a plan even if they had too! Why aren’t they coming into Los Angeles already?” Instead, I was happy to be informed, and greatly relieved that they had modified their plans according to the traveling conditions.
Now I can’t tell you how this story ends….yet. They are leaving Nebraska on Tuesday (Much to my relief, they decided to avoid holiday traffic) and are headed to Denver. From there they plan to drive across the Rocky Mountains, visit the canyons of Utah, drive through Las Vegas and on to Los Angeles. I can tell you that I am a lot more confident about their ability to arrive at their final destination than when they started. Because they made a plan, told me about it and have kept in touch, I feel confident they will arrive safely.
Is it possible they will have car trouble? Will they have a flat tire or a dust-plugged air filter? Maybe. And if they do, I know they are still following the plan, and I won’t become disappointed in them because of the challenges along the way. I will be pleased to know they are still on track. When sometime around Thursday I hear that they have passed Las Vegas (without stopping, I hope) and are on the final stretch, I will be greatly relieved. They will be on the home stretch.
In my opinion, Vyta Corp is on the road somewhere west of Las Vegas. We’ve had extensive delays but have avoided crashes and severe storms. Someone obscured all of western Colorado with ketchup from MacDonald’s, but we’re still on our way. Is a flat tire or engine trouble still a possibility? Sure. Will Vyta actually arrive in 60-90 days as I anticipate? I think so. Could it take an extra 30 days? Maybe. But even with a little car trouble or a breakdown in the Mojave Desert, I believe arrival is close at hand.
When you look at it this way, a phone call is not intended to forecast tomorrow’s weather. It is to ask, “Where are you now?” Are you making progress?” I wouldn’t even consider asking, “Will you arrive in Los Angeles by tomorrow night?” Who, without a crystal ball, can answer that question with certainty?
When I pick up my daughter at the Albany airport in about 10 days, I will not berate her for taking extra time to reach Los Angeles, nor will I accuse her of being unrealistic in her expectations. I will tell her what a great job she did making the trip safely, and thank her for her consideration in keeping me informed.
For what it’s worth, I’m like this with my friends, too. If one of them is on a trip to Africa, or some other remote destination like Oklahoma City, I like to check in and stay connected. It’s my way of maintaining the relationship. It’s not necessary, but it’s certainly more enjoyable.
It’s up to each investor how they want to follow this trip. If it’s all about the money (as most investments really are) then reading the filings 4 times a year and grumbling about the weather may work just fine. But frankly, I like staying in touch. I like being along for the ride, even if I’m not there in person. I like looking at the map and knowing how far the Company’s come and how close it is to its destination. Maybe that’s why I’m so confident.
Best regards,
-zties