Geoff,

When I was tutoring doctoral students in statistics at Va Tech many years ago, I kept a bottle of aspirin handy for all of us.

I was able to talk with Dr. Sorgente, VP of BioAgra, this morning regarding the stats presented. He was very helpful to me in understanding the numbers and I am reaching for the aspirin again.

There are several points I wish to make in this post in response to your previous post.

First point is the timeliness of the data.

The data presented in the frames on BioAgra's website is the most current data from recent studies involving Agrastim.

Yes, we have had data spanning decades of research on Beta-Glucan but to sell and validate BioAgra's product, Agrastim, current stats must be determined with current studies. Agrastim is a new product with its certified 80% or greater in vitro activity.

Second point is in regard to the statistics. This is more complicated. There are two frames that present statistics.

Frame 43 presents unchallenged boilers (chickens in normal environments without being massively infused by infectious agents).

Frame 47 presents challenged boilers for Necrotic enteritis.

In Frame 43, the mortality rates are presented as found in the study. The mortality rate for the birds treated with both Agrastim and antibiotics is presented as found in the study but all believe that it is an aberration.

The ANOVA (Analysis of variance) indicating P-values is the probability (P) of statistical error with a lower number indicating a lower probability of error.

Frame 47 for Necrotic Enteritis, the most significant number is the lesions found in the small intestines. Lesions in the small intestines from Necrotic Enteritis is what kills the bird. Agrastim at 40 grams/ton of feed reduced challenged (massively infected) birds to .2 lesion score, far less than other study treatments. What Dr. Sorgente stated is that if Necrotic Enteritis is suspected as being present, the producer would shift from the reduction of Agrastim to 20 grams/ton at day 14 back up to 40 grams/ton feed to abate the devastating effects of this disease.

Most importantly is to look at both Frame 43 and Frame 47, understanding the statistics that both Agrastim and antibiotics produce significant savings for poultry in feed conversion ratios, body weight gain, and less mortality rates.

These savings are for both unchallenged birds and challenged birds.

Now, my last point; the impact on the poultry industry:

I have conferred with the esteemed judge Zties who has a tremendous amount of research at his fingertips and with Dr. Sorgente. Zties has sent me supporting documentation for the below.

From the 2006 studies of poultry producers.

The top 15 poultry producers in the United States slaughter 150 million chickens per week.

Necrotic Enteritis accounts for an estimated five cents (.05) cost per bird in losses and antibiotic intervention. Dr. Sorgente told me that the five cent cost per bird does not include the mortality rate so that could result in higher costs per bird dealing with Necrotic Enteritis. The death (mortality) rate for Necrotic Enteritis is 2 to 50% (wide range) per flock/barn.

The cost for treating birds with Agrastim is estimated to be two and a half cents (.025) per bird which halves the expense above and also reduces the mortality rate significantly.

Using the slaughter rate of 150 million birds per week for the top fifteen producers, the cost of Necrotic enteritis is $7.5 million per week.

The savings using Agrastim would be $3.75 million per week plus the reduces mortality rate which would add to the savings.

Now, this is just for Necrotic enteritis. Dr. Sorgente made the point to me that the University of GA study was under very controlled conditions, keeping all other infectious agents from entering the study, giving the birds controlled amounts of food averting the natural competition that chickens have for food, reduced stress levels, etc.

It is strongly indicated through other studies that Agrastim performs very well in production conditions, possibly indicated even better than antibiotics, where flocks are exposed to millions of infectious agents along with having the stress of competing for food and space. There are a number of ongoing studies that produce data that Dr. Sorgente compiles to continually validate and strengthen the benefits of Agrastim.

I hope the above helps and now time for a couple more aspirin and lunch.

Regards,

Kent