PMB .. re:Grouchy
posted on
Apr 21, 2007 08:44AM
Yes, I was very grouchy last night. Actually grouchy is a benign word.
Some of what I posted was directed at you. Some was directed at others who seek to be spoon fed. I do not consider you in that category.
My tirade last night was like throwing nails on the highway to stop a few cars and got hundreds of cars. I showed a part of myself that I try to keep locked away. Well, it got out. Investing should be done without emotions. Ooops.
This past week was an intense week on two fronts, first Virginia Tech Massacre and the second VYTC. In both situations I read and heard from many, professing facts and opinions that were baseless and accusatory. Both situations are very important to me so the constant barrage on the television and on this board was felt very strongly.
The above paragraph was written with the reading of your last post regarding your statement of facts. I have learned to be careful when considering what I read and hear as factual. Even truth can be and mostly is a moving target.
Many times I have spoken verbally that investing is a moving target. Situations change at a moments notice. "Facts" change. Business changes. Investing should be a nimble dance. However, for most of us (myself included) nimbleness is not part of our strategy.
And maybe that is wise, at least all the large investing houses teach long term, not short term investing (is that wise? I question it all the time.).
I acknowledge that in the past few days some very good due diligence. Geoff's find of the trademarks was excellent. I was not aware of those.
There has also been good banter on the board, and I appreciate the acknowledgments on most parts of their each and individual perspective for their postings. What I did take exception to was the way that I felt you had manipulated the request for one word answers into a way of degrading the input of information. With your past post, I can see that you felt that that was not what you intended. But that is the way it came across last night. There is also a sentiment within the post of self importance. I write that with a wry grin since I am sure that many would consider my attitude as self proclaimed importance.
Each to their own.
Who you are specifically, I do not know. But I can tell that you are not a young whipper snapper still wet between the legs. You do have intelligence, that is very apparent.
But I do feel that there is a jaded quality to your scrutiny. Now, please to not take offense at that. Many MANY have observed that I have the opposite extreme of Pollyanna (every believing in the sweetness of the world).
The reality is probably closer to the middle.
Now, the facts as they are (I write the word fact with a grin):
1) VYTC has two JVs.
A) Bioagra (50%)
B) ExypnoTech (49%)
2) ExypnoTech has shown strong revenue growth each quarter (around 100% recent quarter over quarter).
A) but not enough for everyone to get really excited about (other than me)
3) Bioagra has shown paltry sales (little close to none)
4) There is a contract with AHD which began April 1, 2007 with minimums to maintain exclusivity to start December 1, 2007.
A) The only financial obligations I can see is that AHD must pay for all costs associated with exporting product into the stated countries. Those costs can be substantial, well over $100,000 each country (part of my own DD).
B) If AHD pulls out, BioAgra loses sales.
C) If BioAgra maintains quality and quantity performance, there is the potential (important word) of significant sales going forward.
D) The per kilo price is confidential but the market is around $150 to $175/Kilo.
5) There are numerous tests going on with interested companies. According to Geoff's post, I believe it was over a dozen.
A) as part of my own DD, interested companies are some of the larges poultry and swine producers in the world. There are other animals as well, such as horses (Equiforce).
6) There are university analysis and testing being performed and completed to establish the efficacy of Agrastim and validity of BioAgra's claims.
A) as part of my own DD, the university test so far concluded validate the efficacy of Agrastim (Beta Glucan) as equivalent to antibiotics.
B) Mortality rates are reduced significantly
C) Feed conversion rates are improved significantly
7) Agrastim has GRAS (Generally Regarded As Safe) designation from the FDA.
8) Organic designation is being pursued and I keep forgetting to ask the status of it.
9) The statements of having all the product sold when BioAgra turns on the production switch were ignorant of the need for validation of Agrastim and the length of time it would take to achieve such validation.
A) the responsibility for those erroneous claims rests IMHO with BioAgra since they are the ones who know (or should have known) the industry.
B) I have lost 70% of my financing dollars ($1 / share) as a result of that.
C) However, I have bought in the open market in the .30s which I hope will help average down.
10) NCS is being used and, again, the length of time to bring it to the market was vastly underestimated.
A) The responsibility for that rests with all NPCT's management and I also take responsibility because I felt the resistance would be minimal.
B) I and most of us have lost 99% of our initial investments for those who are still holding 1999 and 2000 shares.
11) ExypnoTech is producing significant RFID tags. The potential for their market is very large. I hope to see some press releases regarding them this year. IMHO, it will be icing for the cake.
I know there are more points but I am running late to get out on the lake to rejuvenate my spirit.
I am amazed that NPCT/VYTC has survived. Many times I have felt that I have lost everything I have invested in this company. Even recently I have felt that and it is not a good feeling.
Is there still risk? Oh yes. That is why I stated last night that some should not invest in this company but put their money in a mutual fund or in a mattress.
Is there growth potential? Oh yes. That is why I continue to be here and continue to hold and accumulate.
Kent