posted on
Oct 29, 2006 04:21PM

Ceased Operations May15, 2009

Message: Schedule of FDA updates of internet tables
Promise...
I have heard that word numerous times in regards to what people feel they heard in speaking to Paul.
The explitatives deleted are inferred so that I might not be deleted in written word.
Horse Hockey!
If Paul elects to share the status of the company at that time, it is a snap shot of what is being worked on that may or may not come to fruition. He is not so darn stupid to Promise anything.
In this world of financing and investing, there are two words that are never to be used and if heard, to be run away from. Those are "promise" and "guarantee".
So, when I hear investors, financeers, etc. speak of promises, I ruffle and berate right back.
All of us also have tried to work with time frames and in the past calendar year, I gave up on time frames and if I hear time lines from others including investors, I shrug and go on my way.
This company is developing. All business relationships are moving targets. It is no different than any other company.
I watch CNBC every day. I watch stories that unfold that are no different than what I see with NPCT and VYTC. Some of them I LOL in empathy. Some of them are ridiculous. Some of them amazing.
I shorted GM two months ago on a long talk with my broker. It did me well. It is doing me terrible. We never considered Kerkorian coming back into the picture. We are tempted to short more but I want to see that picture unfold as well.
With that short dissertation, my point is that any investment is a moving target and we have to adjust all the time, including management. I read or scan probably 50 10Qs or Ks every quarter and see it all the time.
Frankly, with all this feeling of Paul giving promises, I am amazed that he speaks to anyone at all. He has all rights to simply state that information will only come through press releases and filings. He has done that in regard to shareholder letters and I cheered. I hate those letters and feel they do nothing constructive.
Paul's greatest fault might be his desire to speak to investors and share what might be potentials at that time. He is positive by nature. That, while being an asset, could be a fault. Our share price would be no different IMHO if he closed the phone to investors.
One of the reasons and by far not the major reason that I am supporting VytaCorp is Paul's tenacity. I have worthless shares from other companies that the CEO just gave up after less than a year. Paul has never given up, even in the despair times of 1999 and 2001. Consequently, Exypnotech Gmbh has turned around and most probably will be significantly acretive to the bottom line of VytaCorp. When? Remember, I don't do time lines. Time travel sucks.
I want to discuss both the status in my opinion of the company and the two major mistakes/misjudgements that I feel were made in regard to developing BioAgra and I may fumble it here but will keep on running....
I am fortunate to have been able to travel to Hinesville and check on their progress. I have been fortunate to meet the significants of both BioAgra and VytaCorp. I will make the trip again in the not to distant future. When? Yeah, right.
Having seen the plant in development helped me understand the complexity of what they are working on accomplishing. When I was told last November that they anticipate immediate sales, I replied that that was nice but in my mind had reservations that that was realistic. Regardless, I know that the production line works well and produces quality product. I know that the demand is out there once the product has been sufficiently demonstrated by individual corporate testing.
Will I promise this? Yeah, right!
It may seem strange but in my humble and strong opinion, all of the hurdles that we have gone through increases my confidence that we are building a real company with a real product that will generate significant revenue. IF sales came in immediately after production commenced and we had a surge in our share price from those highly desired press releases, I would have been selling into that surge. It would not be right. It would have been a flash in the pan.
So, instead, the development has been more along normal lines with pratfalls and forward progress.
That will create a stronger basis for a perpetual company with steady growth and (in my opinion) growth that could be geometric.
Now, to the two mistakes/misjudgements that I feel were made in the past two years.
The first misjudgement was in the time and money it would take to develop the production facilities at BioAgra. It was forecasted (reminds me of a weather man joke I might remember to include) to be completed last January. I visited the plant last January and it was well on its way but its complexity was such that it would take more time.
And, it took more money. According to the past 10K, VYTC has put in an additional $1.75 million beyond the $1.5 million JV price. It has taken a lot more money to bring the plant on line.
Again, contrar to being dissapointed, I had not felt that $1.5 million would be enough and was self vindicated that it would take more money and take more time.
The second mistake/misjudgement was the anticipation of immediate sales. Heck, I would have been happy to have sold in the surge of that flash in the pan if it had happened. But, that was an unrealistic expectation/hope on anyone's part.
Agrastim (Beta Glucan) is a new product. Beta Glucan has been around for several decades (I believe since the 1940s or 1950s). Yet it has never been able to be produced in quantity and consistent quality. Agrastim had to be evaluated by the companies interested. It had to be proven to the industry. It had to be tested. GRAS approval had to be obtained to mitigate liability. Frankly, I feel that Organic designation is needed as well but that is for natural producers. I do expect to get Organic designation as well.
Adding a new element to the feed that is expensive and has been indicated to have an efficacy such as to replace growth promoting antibiotics is a significant step to any major meat producer whether it is chicken, swine, salmon, shrimp, beef, or whatever. These potential customers each spend millions of dollars every month on antibiotics. To switch requires their own testing. And I look for each customer to ramp up their switching over on a conservative basis. The positive to this is that the number of potential customers with their potential demand has increased over the past year so that even with customers gradual switching over to Agrastim, BioAgra will most likely have to expand.
But, it was unrealistic for any of us to anticipate immediate sales. The demand is there. The expressed need by potential customers indicates full production sales once purchase orders start. But the product had to be evaluated.
The risk is still there in this company. As I have stated in previous post, the testing may not meet the potential customer's expectations or needs. Until we get that first purchase order, we remain very vulnerable. That is why we are at .41 or so.
Oh, the weather man joke...
Why are weather men called weather men?
They don't know whether it will rain or whether it will be sunny or whether it will be snowy.
Last month, the weather men really botched it with that heavy snow up in New York. I heard there were lynch mobs out after the weather men.
They just call like they see it according to the charts in front of them at that time.
Regards,
Kent
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