RE: New SHO Reg and Reverse split - Geoff
posted on
Jan 22, 2005 12:26PM
I`ll step in here for a moment.
A reverse or forward split will not trigger short covering. The only thing a split would cause would be either a reduction of the number of shares needed to be covered or an increase.
Reverses have notoriously caused a dramatic decrease in share price pre and post reverse.
The only mechanism that I have seen that force short covering has been a move to another exchange.
I have seen a reverse combined with a move to another exchange done effectively in one company last year (ADBL). ADBL finally achieved significant revenue in 2003. Their share price moved from 30 cent (and less) average to $3.50 - $4.50 in late 2003. To ensure ADBL listing on Nasdaq, they elected to reverse 3:1 (effective June 2004). I watched before and after the reverse, fully expecting to see a devestating reduction of share price. This did not happen. They reversed to a share price of around $12.00 and bounced between that and $10.00. They listed on Nasdaq Small Cap in July 2004. In November 2004, they achieved Nasdaq National Market listing.
ADBL has achieved a high of $30.65 and ranges recently between $22.00 and $25.00. Their outstanding pre rs was approximately 63.8 million. Post rs outstanding was 21.3 million. Current outstanding is 23 million. Revenue guidance for 2004 is $33 million, 2003 revenue was $19 million.
I have seen moves to exchanges cause short covering as well but few recently with the exception of IOTN which was USHG. In late 2003, early 2004, they announced a change of business. Laden with $57 million debt in 2003, they cleaned up the business. Gradually the share price moved sub 30 cents to 75 cents for a short resistance and then moved past $2.00 (1st qtr 2004). It is now trading on Nasdaq (December 2004) and has had a high of $11.81 and is recently trading around $8.20. They did not implement a reverse split and have an outstanding of 70 million. Revenue nine months ending September 30 was $4.7 million with gross profit of $312,000.
The above two examples are given to show what can happen with both actualization of a product (ADBL) and a change in business (IOTN) that has been tenaciously followed through. The result of short covering was there but the strength of the business was more important. I am certain short covering occurred all through the share price increase.
Even certificate only trading plan has not been successful from what I have seen in the past.
Kent