RE: The role of Agrastim<sup>TM</sup... in Animal Health
posted on
May 02, 2006 11:06AM
Some points to consider regarding your previous post.
The sampling size was six thousand and six thousand-five hundred.
The beneficial percentages seems to be small in trial 1 (.18% - 1/20th percent - reduction in mortatilty) (weight increase .075% - less than 1/10th percent) etc., but what I find very positive is that the control group were given the antibiotics and the test group the Agrastim (BetaGlucan). The test group with Agrastim was able to ``outperform`` the control group. Agrastim can replace the antibiotics, giving cost benefits in the US, aiding oversea markets in poultry production, and openning the European market to US Meat (poultry).
Another consideration is the numbers. 6,000 chickens is a good test number. Now consider that we are talking in terms of millions of chickens / day slaughter. A 1/10th percent increase in survivability (reduction in mortality) is a significant number of thighs and breasts (I am a thigh man). That is also in light of replacing the antibiotics which are considered to be deterious to us in developing these super bacteria which I am all to familiar with since one of those buggers is what added to causing my mother`s death nine years ago.
The dosage is small but again the numbers of mouths to feed are huge. It would be interesting to read the tonnage of feed that even one poulty farm goes through in a day.
BioAgra`s production line (the first production line) has been rated to produce a minimum of 15,000 KiloGrams (Kilos) per month. Adding a second centrifuge could increase that rate of production by around 50%. There is room in the facilities in BioAgra to add three more production lines. Frankly, I see them adding one or maybe two production lines and leave them room for other needs. BioAgra needs to plan to open another production facility. The SB2 states clearly that being dependent on one production facility is a liability. If Savanah were hit by a huricane like Katrina, the risks would be high.
Now, how much does a Kilo of highly refined (80% or greater) highly active Beta 1-3, 1-6 Glucan sell for? Interviews on CEOCast long ago stated $200US/Kilo minimum. It could be far higher but it also could be lower if IFF BioAgra has developed procedures that reduce the cost and time per Kilo in production and are able to pass those through to the consumer.
Do the math for various prices. I have for $100 going up to $500 per Kilo.
Is there demand? If Agrastim can replace antibiotics and deliver even equivalent growth rates and mortality reductions, there will be strong demand. If Agrastim can show (if it has not already which I feel it has) that its performance over antibiotics is even marginally better, there will be strong demand.
I have been convinced that there will be strong, very strong demand.
Now, another point regarding news, shares, and SB2.
Right now, the outstanding shares for VYTC is a bit above seven million shares. The float is far smaller and tight.
The SB2 is registering the balance of shares (a bit more than 15 million) to yield around 23 million shares outstanding. None of those shares are available to trade in the open market at this time. They could be shorted against but I am not seeing that either (volume just to darn low).
During the period of time that the SB2 is being reviewed by the SEC, VYTC is hogtied in what it can and cannot say. What it can release in PRs is minimal if close to nothing (i.e. silent). The SEC is kind of in the driver`s seat at this time.
The SB2 was filed March 29th. It has been over one month. I have seen SB2s approved within 45 days but on average it is two months. I have seen the SEC take as long as 90 days to approve an SB2.
I do not look for any news during this period of time. I do expect that BioAgra is producing product. The SB2 indicated that they anticipate being in production in April 2006. It is May 2006 now.
IMHO we have two weeks to a monthish before news comes out. I feel bullish on what that news will be.
Regards,
Kent