Timmins & Beardmore - Northern Ontario

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Message: BGGC area plays ...

BGGC area plays ...

posted on Jul 09, 2009 04:26PM

I took a look at many of the BG area plays and found some very telling similarities with regards to valuation.

Here's what I found

first I excluded Premier Gold as it has many other advanced properties so they are essentially in a different league.

1.) Sage Gold, SP = $.06, share capital = 234.5 million .... Market Cap = $14 million (after amalgamation)

1.6 Million working capital as of March 31.

Sage also has a 43-101 on Onoman which on it's own could be valued "in situ" at about 8 million. The market right now gives it ZERO because it's inferred and the tonnage is still low.

second largest property holder in the BG area.

2.) Kodiak Exploration, SP=$.51, share capital = 88.5 million ... Market Cap = 45 million

$21 million working capital as of March 31

no 43-101 resource but lots of drills and huge property holdings

3.) Alto Ventures, SP= $.02, share capital =95.5 million .... Market Cap = 1.9 million

1 million cash as of March 31

4.) Ontex, SP= $.26, share capital - 103 million ... Market Cap =26.78 million

3 million cash as of March 31

has a 43-101 on brookbank property (it's only BG play) and in the process of raising up to $5 million.... since june 3

5.) Roxmark, SP= $.135, sharecapital = 186 million ... Market Cap is 25 million

$1.6 million in working capital as of March 31

Has 30% carrying interest in Hardrock property agressively explored by PG with a 1 million oz historic (non 43-101) resource

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So Whoopdeedo Basil, what's it all mean?!?

IMO, and thinking out loud

- the whole BG is beaten down and raising cash is near impossible. perhaps the CPW deal was a good idea afterall.

- given the market caps of all the companies, we should not expect an enormous run on the share price in the near term but cumulative work coupled with kxl work on the GM and GE will bode well for the rest of the year. as market conditions improve and people start paying more attention to the BG area it will get better.

- Like most green stone belts, most gold mineralization is DEEP (look at Red Lake and Abitibi) below 800-1200 metres. These BG plays are considered long term ventures. some like PG have found near surface gold which has helped but the market needs proof before any credit is given. If there is strong mineralization near surface on the GE, it will certainly help.

- Cash is king and Sage will have over 4 million post amalgamation. that's nearly 30% of it's current market cap.

- if initial drill results are promising, I would not rule out a larger investment from kinross. 8.6% is a small holding for them and the stock (the area in general) is dirt cheap IMO.

- a merger with kodiak might be a stretch but not out of the question if it makes sense to have one company hold almost all of the land in the BGGC.

just some thoughts, any others??

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