Re: From Longbomb - figures
in response to
by
posted on
Sep 12, 2008 05:07PM
Focused on becoming a near-term Gold Producer
... optimistic figures on what Lynx is worth - and we could all use optimism now!
However ... mine prospects are never valued at their net future value - i.e. after you've done the mining - and for good reasons. There has to be some $ left to make it worthwhile for a potential acquirer, and also for the time value and risk of speculators like us. We may have to wait a couple of years to be acquired and there has to be some upside left for us until then. And then when you get a bid for Sage, it only works if there is still a gap up towards fair value, and even then the acquirer is only going to buy it if they can then still see a profit for themselves in buying Sage.
More reasonable to value SGX with metal $ numbers as they tend to be valued for stuff in the ground - e.g. $150/oz for (only the mineable!) gold.
Using the same figures, that would make the metal in the ground conservatively worth $32 million, or very roughly 22 cents/share for Lynx. However, that doesn't count the stuff that hasn't been reported, or assayed, or discovered yet on SGX property. Certainly for example Jacobus adds a lot of value to the stock, and I'd gauge a 100% chance of a Golden Mile / Kodiak connection. So a fair value today for the whole company might be ??? 60 or 80 cents or $1.00 or more a share, depending on how much more you think they will prove up.
One of the things pointed out to me by a wise mining engineer was that explorer stocks are often valued more highly when the upside remains uncapped, with lots of prospects, vs. when a 43-101 says "that's all there is!".
Certainly 12 cents is well below value and I bought a bunch more today and yesterday (wish I'd gotten the 10 cent ones though!!!!). all best / cedar