coach post
posted on
Jul 24, 2008 08:12AM
Focused on becoming a near-term Gold Producer
from kxl for those who don,t read kxl forum
If I may throw in my personal opinion, I do not think any kind of merger with KXL is in the cards anytime soon. A hostile takeover is always on the table, since every company is for sale at the right price, but again, I doubt it will occur because there is not enough proven gold in the system yet to warrant a double-digit hostile takeover offer. So things are unlikely to get interesting for KXL shareholders, but I do think KXL may strike at any time to grab another junior in a bid of their own, if the combination makes sense.
Now I fully agree with anyone that wants to talk about potential. I think (and I have expressed this opinion many times on this forum) that the land holdings controlled by KXL may comprise the majority of an emerging, significant gold belt. If so, then the historic high grade producers which dot the trend may represent just the isolated deposits that have been developed within a much larger, rich gold district. And if that is true, then KXL will be taken out by a senior player, just to have all that leverage to the property.
As we get more exploration work completed, we should begin to find out just how prolific this trend is. A few big discovery stories will add a whole hell of a lot of upside potential. People will start to become greedy again about the juniors here, instead of selling out of fear of what the overall markets may do. When an area play develops, all juniors with leverage to that area get speculative buying interest. We had a sniff of that already.
So again, the strategy for KXL to investigate several projects along the trend is going to pay dividends if any of them hit big new zones. It increases the value of all of the other property controlled by the company. It increases the awareness for all of the Beardmore-Geraldton camp as a high priority exploration district. One need only look at what happened around Red Lake in 2003 after Goldcorp really put the cat among the pigeons with the high-grade deep zone discovery. It can happen here too. And rather than have investors running to bid up dozens of other juniors, KXL controls almost all of the interesting land holdings. Where do you think the spec money will go to?
There has not been a lot of merger activity this year. But this week, we saw three: Minco bought Stirling Mining. Private Asian interests bought QGX (I own some of that one). And now Kinross takes out AUN. This is very positive. When you get a cycle of consolidation, it drives spec money into the sector as a premium is built up on the next potential candidates. The PM sector is at historic lows for investor interest and needs some new reasons for people to get excited. This could be it.
I think we are close to the bottom, but I thought that last year too. It has been an ugly market. I have been through 3 of these severe downtrends in the PM sector so far, and I have hurt my ass on every one of them. But each time the recovery happens, it turns out to be hugely profitable thereafter. That is why I am still in this sector, fully invested.
I remain on my self-imposed trading halt. I would be a buyer now but I am sitting on my hands and neither bought nor sold a share since the property tour. The market will sway between over- and under-valuing the juniors, but as long as the company is focused on a solid, realistic business plan, then I have always beleived in buying dips and this surely represents a dip. The last time KXL traded in this range, it was all based on results from a small part of the Hercules Project. Now with so much more work done at Hercules, so much more property acquired, several new projects under way, many new and talented people on board, so much new geological information in hand, over $50 million in new financing raised, and up to 8 drills now turning in the field.... WTF is wrong with some people to think it takes inside info to understand that NOW is the time one should be getting excited about cheap stock?
As always, my opinions are just that: opinions. Do you own DD and take full responsibility for your decisions. Come hell or high water I will still be invested in this company, long after the next waves of greed and fear hit. I cannot find a better story for a long term investment and that is why I am here. I receive no compensation for presenting my opinions.
cheers!
mike