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Message: Re: My 2 Cents
3
Mar 05, 2015 01:37PM
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Mar 05, 2015 02:06PM
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Mar 05, 2015 02:56PM

CaptainT

It's quite evident that this is an open and shut case for you. You could have sold at $5.40 shortly after G offer when its SP was ~$30/s. Take the money and start investing in the oil sector (off topic). Why take the G shares which pay a monthly dividend of ~$0.05/s (~$0.60/year, or ~2%/year, not 3%). The 3%/yr may be possible if G sp continues to fall and assuming that the dividends remain the same...But who would want a significant sp drop for gaining a 1% in dividend?

The dividend of $0.60/G share/year would be worth 0.1755 x 0.60 = $0.10/current PRB shares following the 1 PRB = 0.1755 G share swap, if this proposed deal is accepted.

As far as the new PRB is concerned, if the chromite value is ignored, as the market has indicated, the value of the new PRB share would be in the range of $19M/91M = $0.20/current PRB share, when they are tradable (no promise of a listing, according the information given to shareholders).

Unless I made some fatal errors, the G dividend and the new PRB are not significant in the big scheme (total: ~$0.30) compared to the peak value of PRB mentioned above ($5.40/s).

We must congratulate AEM for having impecable timing for taking $5/s and $2.9/wt. The balance of over 3M wts may still be with AEM, but most likely AEM has already sold to some entity who has converted them to shares (putting ~$9M in PRB treasury which would belong to G) and would vote in favour of the proposed deal for future consideration by G.

A NO vote may cause a drop in PRB share price, if G decides to give up. But, it may shake G up a bit for it to sweeten up the deal (a bidding war would help). Also, a NO vote with G walking away would undoubtedly shake our BoD quite a bit, for them to change their practice (more transparent and better treatment of retail shareholders?). If this is not happening, then of course they can be replaced.

Just speculating.

goldhunter

2
Mar 05, 2015 06:38PM
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Mar 05, 2015 06:59PM
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