Re: Quick Calculation - PRB valuation
in response to
by
posted on
Apr 08, 2014 01:07PM
Hello Deputy,
Noted that Been There already mentioned that PRB and Osisko are two different beasts. The latter is a producing mine and they have sunk in quite a few dollars to develop the mines.
Some quick cals have been posted (see, e.g. GH a few days back, 3 April?, and before that). You could compare what IAG paid for TTR/Cote Lake which has a low grade deposit (~1gpt). TTR main zone pit-constraint resource has 4.3Moz (unconstraint pit would yield a bit more 6Moz?).
Now, the HGZ is the trump card for Dave. The deposit is confined, grade is excellent, much better grade than Cote Lake, say ~3+gpt, and my shoebox model says another 4-6Moz from the HGZ is within reach for a total Borden Gold resource of 10-12Moz. If this is compared with Cote Lake (note, they are in the same region) the the value of PRB would be around $1 to$1.2B.
The current Mkt Cap is ~ $0.25B. So, PRB is undervalued by 4x to ~5x.
Take your pick. 4 x 3.4 = $13.6/s, 5 x 3.4 = $17/s. If you don't believe in 10Moz deposit then scale it down to 8Moz which gives $11/s. Regardless, I would say $10+/s would be reasonable offer for ~10 Moz, and I would look at this offer seriously (sell half? and let the other half ride).
$40+/s is a tad rich, but I'd take it, if people want to offer that much. But who knows, the next resource estimate may blow us all away.
Good luck with your analysis. Playing around with numbers is good.
goldhunter