posted on
Apr 03, 2014 01:18PM

Solid foundations. New horizons.

Message: Re: Nice Day
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ElP
Your post says: "As I mentioned earlier, I'm guessing GoldCorp or IAM Gold wants Borden Lake. If true, how would you guess Agnico Eagle handles it. Or, is Agnico the client?"
Just looking at the whole situation last night:
- Yamana: Not likely, since it would be busy trying to digest the 50% of Osisko, the first forray in the Canadian water (most of its operations were outside Canada). Don't think that they would go after another one, even though PRB potential resource looks quite attractive (their resource without the 50% of Osisko is only 11Moz).
- IAG: Just swallowed TRR/Cote Lake with some 6Moz resource. Again, it's would be time to digest this new acquisition. However, Cote Lake is a low grade deposit (just about 1gpt) hence PRB looks attractive with the HGZ hosting potentially an additional 6Moz of high grade ores (3+gpt?). They might try again, but the company is a light weight (Cap: $1.3B ) so not sure if it can afford to pay over $1B for PRB (assuming 10+Moz).
- G: It has its presence in the Timmins area with a reserve of about 3Moz, hence PRB could fit in G's scheme (an additional 10+Moz, especially with the HGZ, is quite attractive. This is evidenced by its desire to acquire Osisko, but lost out to Yamana (quite a loss of face). May be they have learned the lesson of being too cheap! So, when it comes to PRB, be prepared to be more reasonable, or there will be a white knight coming along snatching PRB.
- AEM: This could be a potential WK, since it has already the 10-% of PRB. Also, AEM and PRB seem to have a good relationship. But, again be reasonable, or G will up the anti to save its image (no good to be a loser twice in a row). LOL!
- LSG: ???
- Barrick: Market Cap: $23B, big enough, not too sure if it wants any acquisition, but with an incoming CEO (at $9M salary) he might do something unpredictable, keeping in mind that Canada is known to be a stable jurisdiction.
If PRB could bring in a $1.2B offer, then that would translate to ~5x the current SP = $16.5/s. If that is too rich then a $1B would yield $15/s. Still too high? How about the rock bottom (fire sale) price of $700M,SP of about $11/s. No error in my math so far?
That what the crystal is saying. Let the war (bidding war, that is) begin.
goldhunter
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