Re: CIBC Investors Edge Daily Market Report High on PRB!
in response to
by
posted on
Mar 02, 2014 06:22PM
Hello dipper,
Since I am clueless when it comes to prediction, by technical analysis, of the SP based on the price history, if the software used in the technical analysis says so, then it would be a good sign. This would be in addition to my tea leaf reading below based on the following basic information (kind of close to fact, but I would not dare claim it as fact).
- Currently, we have a pit-constrained 4.3 M oz Au at some reasonable grade...plus the HGZ from 950m 2000m (over 1km strike length... and possibly going for about ~1km, if the current ice drilling continues to bring up high grade cores). According to a crude shoebox model (L x W x D, etc...) the additional ozs in the HGZ would bring the total resource estimate to at least 8 Moz (brave me). This excludes the resources from the wedge (a short length anyway) and that from 2000mSE to the other side of the lake (one could throw in another 2 Moz to make it 10 Moz total.
Note: My favourite negotiation with the forestry folks would be to stop the negotiation all together, and wait for them to get back to the table when they are good and ready. PRB could just go around their claims with an undeground operation. More on this at some other time.
- Trelawney TO: Iamgold paid ~$600M for 6.8M oz of indicated and inferred (15% indicated and 85% inferred)...or $600/6.8 = $88/oz (or 88/1320 = 6.6% of current POG @ $1320/oz). Note that the TRR resource (grade less than 1gpt) is not as good as our guesstimate of 8M oz for PRB (pit-constrained model has grade >1gpt, and the half from the HGZ up to 2000mSE has significantly higher grade which is suitable for underground mining operation.
Let do some rough math: 8Moz/6.8Moz x $600M = $705M (ignoring the expected premium coming from the pit-constrained and HGZ (some shows phenomenal grades for short sections...would love to find out if Dave will show some cores with visible gold at PDAC).
PRB Market Cap = $250M. Hence PRB is undervalued by the market by a factor of 705/250 = 2.8 (could easily = 3, if high grades are taken into account)
SP = $3.30 x 3 = $10, a nice round number to aim for.
Please feel free to play around with the numbers for 10Moz resource, or adjust the SP for any math or info errors, noting that the conversion between US and Cdn dollars has been ignored in this guesstimate.
In summary:
- short-term bullist target: $4.10 - 4.25 from technical analysis (how short is short-term here?)
- tea leaf reading based on basic info: $10 (for longer-term, say by end of 2014? A TO would probably happen by then).
Take your pick (or pick a lower or higher number, if you wish), put your play money on the table and wait for the dice to reveal themselves.
Comments?
GLTA
goldhunter