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Message: Re: level ll - Probe Valuation
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Feb 14, 2014 08:32AM
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Feb 14, 2014 08:43AM
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Feb 14, 2014 09:05AM
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Feb 14, 2014 10:45AM
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Feb 14, 2014 11:34AM
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Feb 14, 2014 12:25PM
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Feb 14, 2014 08:56PM
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Feb 15, 2014 02:08PM
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Feb 15, 2014 04:31PM

Neophyte S,

Very well put.

As you indicated BarbuB with his 3-bagger, at his exit, was excellent.

In fact, anything more than double the money, especially if the position is large enough would give a good return. As an example for discussion purposes, a purchase of say a 30,000 shares of PRB @ $3.25/s, now (for just under $100,000 cash investment) would yield about $100,000 gain, for a 2-bagger. Of course this assumes quite a few things including, the size of the deposit, the POG, luck, etc...

- There is nothing one can do about luck, since if the financial world came crashing down then everyone would suffer, especially people investing with their grocery money, and worse for people on margin. If you have "enough money" for a roof over the head, and other essentials like food, then you can wait it out (no panic selling).

- POG: It looks like it has hit the bottom, and on its way up (just broke the $US 1300/oz a few days ago).

- Size of Deposit at Borden Gold: It has 4.3Moz plus the HGZ which could potentially add another 4 Moz. With over 8 M oz plus, the value of the deposit would be 8 Moz x $50/oz = $400M which is almost double the present Mkt Cap of just over $200M.

If the deposit became say 12 Moz (quite possible) and @ a value = $70/oz (Trelawney) then the value of the deposit would be 840M = 3.6 x current Mkt Cap.

Conclusion: a 3-bagger is not an un-reasonnable expection. In other words, an investment of $100k would rake in $200k. Minus the tax of, say 30-50%, would yield over $100k for a good shopping trip (a red sport car perhaps?)

This is what my crystal ball would seem to say, but others may come with a different conclusion. (It should be noted that PRB has enough cash...some $30M plus another $10M or so, from the exercise of wts by AEM...to weather any potential upheavals)

Bottomline: If I won a $1M lottery jackpot, I would throw on the table $500,000 for some additional PRB shares at the current SP, and wait for about 1 year to test out my luck. If the investment hits a 2-bagger then I would sell half (to get back the principal amount) and let the other half (profit) ride until the end.

Some would say, this looks like gambling, but as the saying goes: "nothing ventured nothing gained".

By the way, the other $500,000 of the lottery winning would be in a safer hand who would put it in long-term T-bills or GICs (@ say 5%/yr for, i.e. $25,000/yr...boring, but this would be fine with some people).

Enough speculations from me folks.

goldhunter

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Feb 15, 2014 10:38PM
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