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Message: Re: nice close, Raymond James - Target $3.5/s too conservative
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Jan 23, 2014 05:20PM
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Jan 23, 2014 06:34PM
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Jan 24, 2014 09:41AM
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Jan 24, 2014 03:01PM

Sent request to Karen yesterday. Hopefully, she will respond to it tomorrow. Emrpin, thanks very much for the tip.

In my opinion RJ was too conservative in his target price of $3.5/s. Using the yardstick in the Iamgold TO of Trelawney of over $70/oz in-situ (Note: Don't remember the exact figure. Also, most of TRR resource estimate was in the inferred category) a TO price of PRB would be as follows:

- using pit-constrained value (i.e. ignoring the HGZ): $70/oz x 4.3 Moz = $301M/207M = 1.45 (rock bottom premium of 45%), 1.45 x $2.75/s =2.75 x1.45 = $4.00/s

- Assuming 1.0Moz in the HGZ (up to 2000SE): $4.00 x (4.3 +1)/4.3 = 4 x 1.23 = $5/s

- Assuming 1.5 Moz in the HGZ (up to 2000SE): $4.00 x (4.3 +1.5)/4.3 = 4 x 1.35 = $5.4/s

- Assuming 3.0Moz for the HGZ over the entire lake bottom: $4.00 x 1.69 = $7.00/s

-etc, etc. Note also that 4.3Mz is for the pit-constrained scenario. There would be more oz Au available in the non-constrained model.

Based on the above, RJ is too conservative, by a factor of 2 (7/3.5 =2), if my math is not out of wack. Personally, I would not budge, unless the SP is in the $10 level.

I am betting on the entire lake bottom (even beyond the cottages) hosting more HG stuff and the POG has reached the bottom and is heading back up to some decent level.

goldhunter

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