I have held Probe for a number of years now. As Borden has progressed and is becoming what could be a potentially world scale gold producer, I have concluded that Probe can very well become my (and others as well) retirement fund. Perhaps I have on my rose coloured glasses, but believing that this could one day be a 20 mil ounce deposit at grades higher than we have today, is a real possiblity. Probe has amassed quite a land package and with one or two more land acquisitions will in all respects tie up this new and world class gold trend. The recent high grade discovery will add reserves exponentially. Including holes not reported and holes reported but not included in the NI-43-101, I am assuming we are well above 5 mil ounces of pit constrained gold. After further aggressive drilling into our high-grade zone this should increase significantly. Add to this the fact that this is our first discovery on a large property size including 350 square km of newly acquired yet to be explored properties along trend. All in all I do believe 20 million ounces over the long term is feasible.

If I am correct that 20 mil ounces is feasible, then one would assume that a company located in Ontario next to highways and infrastructure would eventually be worth $250 per ounce, but much more if gold goes above $2000, which I believe is a real possibility in the next five years.

Let's assume that after a couple of years of operation we have paid off all debt and thus the enterprise value=market cap=$5 billion. Let's assume that any equity offerings are done at much higher levels (let's say on average $7/share once the gold price has recovered we have a PEA and approvals), and let's say we need to raise say $300 million of equity or an additional 60 million shares. Thus, the fully diluted number at that point in time would be 130 million shares. The share price would then equal $38/share, or approximately 25x where it is at today.

So here is my worry- somewhere in the next two years and well before we ever see $38/share, a mid-tier or senior producer bids a fraction of $38 for 100% of Probe. There is no doubt that a bid of 40-50% more than the share price at any prrice (Rainy River is a good example) generally gets a deal done. Perhaps when our share price is $2.50 someone bids $3.50 and takes the entire company over. There goes my retirement fund.

The Agnico deal is interesting because I believe that often other bidders may not be as aggressive (re. hostile takeover) since they would believe that Agnico has the inside track and will outbid them. On the other hand (and a worry) is Agnico has the inside track and will see the potential and may be the fox that was let into the hen house. So hopefully the Agnico deal at least buys us a couple of years of not having to worry about a hostile bid/Agnico bid. Whether we could ever reach the holy grail and get into production and get to see $38/share is another story altogether.