New Financing and Speculations
posted on
May 11, 2013 11:19AM
Posted on SH, post here for info.
goldhunter
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Bailey,
Your post says: "Do the math. It was almost a 2 for 1 sale. They got almost 2 shares for 2 bucks. You must have forgot about the .75 full share warrant."
No way! Here is the math using my calculator from the Dollar store, the one that has big keys and numbers. Let me know if I, or my 1$ calculator, have made any fatal error.
- 7.5M shares x $2.00/s = $15M (2.00/s is approximately 75% premium over the SP/previous day)
- Warrant: We should take this into account as well, 0.75 x 7.5M = 5.6M wts @ $2.1/wt for 2 years.
5.6Mwts x $2.1/wt = $11.76M (Assumption: $11.76M will be flowing into PRB treasury, if all wts are exercised)
- Total shares after all wts exercised: 7.5 + 5.6 = 13.1 shares
- Total money raked in: $15 M + $11.7M = $26.7 M
- Average price per share: 26.7/13.1 = $2.04/s, i.e. slightly more than 75% premium for the total deal (shares + wts).
Please check the math above, noting the $11.7M the investors need to pay when they exercise the wts. I would say $26.7M for 13.1Ms @2.04 a piece is a good price given the SP the day before.
Even with the SP of $1.30/s at the close of Friday 10May (a nice jump during the last 10min), the premium is still 57% premium, which is not too shabby under the present market condition I would say.
I would venture a guess (speculation) that the SP will head up in the 2.00 level before we need to worry about shorting, assuming there is no good news from PRB.
My tea leaf reading says:
- Announcement of acquisition of the "wedge claims" in the SE area with plenty of cash in the kitty;
- PRB begins drilling on this newly acquired land along the strike length, from hole 256 to the last hole on ice;
- More good results under the lake;
- More high grades from the wedge claim (this would be a strategic claim...and Dave would go for it first)
I would not worry too much about the updated resource calculations, since we know that it's more than 5.8Moz and growing, especially with the high grade results. I would rather see more drilling with high grade results in the SE. This is where PRB (and its SP) would get more bang for the buck. JMO.
Note: Just saw PRB cash of $40M as of December 2012 (see top of Agoracom board for PRB) , rather than $32M, so presumably $8M worth of (old) wts have been exercised before year-end. Hence the revised total cash available: 40 + 15 + 11.7 = $66.7M... plus a bit more if there have been more old wts exercised from 1 Jan to 21 Apr 2013. Lots of cash, which may cause some salivation from bigger fish.
goldhunter