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Message: Re: Convictions Idea List
7
Dec 03, 2012 04:25PM

Hello Mark,

Your post poses the following questions: "A Total Resource of 7-8 Moz is priced in at $50/oz? Plus cash

What will the new Pit Constrained Resource be? 5 Moz at $50/oz is $250M plus $40M cash plus BC.

Today our MCap is $124M (SP $1.90), so how is the New Resource priced in RBC?"

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Some comments would be as follows:

- Method 1 (Adding the cash to the worth of the deposit, as in above): A current deposit of 5.8 Moz would yield the following "under valuation factors", noting 5.8Moz @ 50/oz = $290M, and the value of BC is totally ignored to illustrate the point.

The math: 290 + 44M = $334M (worth including cash)/$124M (mkt cap) = 2.69

- Method 2 (Subtract the cash from the mkt cap): $(124 - 44)M = $80M (mkt valuation of 5.8 Moz).

The math: 290/80 = 3.62

(The exercise could be repeated for 8 Moz to give 400+44/124 = 3.58 using Method 1; and

400/80 = 5.0 using Method 2)

I would encourage our "dear friends" at RBC to use Method 2 in setting a target for PRB sp.

Note: The effect would be dramatic if the value of BC were thrown in the calculations, say BC value over $100M, the math: 124-44-100 = - 20M (BL gold deposit is for free).

IMO, PRB should sell BC quick to get more cash for distribution to shareholders, and make sure that BL is not given away for a song.

Kindly check my math and logic.

goldhunter



10
Dec 04, 2012 07:10AM
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