Re: Mackie Note
in response to
by
posted on
Apr 03, 2012 10:14AM
Brutus, interesting note from Mackie. Thanks for the info.
I have a bit (correction, a lot) of difficulty understanding the logic for almost the same end results
- NAV: $5.25/s FD
- Target: $4.00/s
when compared with the old numbers (March 2012 PRB Corporate Presentation, slide 5).
Bottomline: a good BUY recommendation. The old results were based on the old resources at a total Indicated + Inferred = 4.1 Moz and most of the gold is in the inferres category. Now, the total (I + Infer) oz has increased to almost 6Moz. I had trouble, even with the undervaluation of PRB based on the old results and thought that perhaps the bankers and analysts would only pay attention to the indicated oz (was 0.305MozAu). But now the indicated number has shot up dramatically (over 4Moz, a factor of 13.3). So, what would be the reasons for keeping the NAV and target at almost the same level.
Note sure if chromite credit (not included in the old valuation and presume not now) is taken into account (Northern: $15M and RBC: $38M for chromite). There was no mentioned of Ag credit.
Did the analysis give the reason for the same conclusion, reduction in the PoG. If so, any idea what was the prices used before and now?
One more thing, the SP was $2.15/s at that time...Now, with a significant increase in the resource and the SP = $1.4/s. Somebody's playing trick on us?
goldhunter (beyond my comprehension)
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