Irresistible at SP below $1.30
posted on
Mar 15, 2012 01:53PM
There are many things we can point our fingers to in an attempt to explain the drop PRB SP during the last few days, including the release of the new drill results, management ineptitude, short selling, sales of flow-through shares for tax benefits, and the drop in the PoG, etc.
I can see the effect of a drop of PoG (some $50/oz to bring it down to about $1645/oz is quite significant) on juniors involving in gold exploration. This is true for cash strapped juniors, but PRB could be considered as the upper crust of the juniors with several promising properties, including the flagship at Borden. The company has $33M cash in its treasury and this is more than enough to carry out all planned activiites for the next year (budget: $15 M) or two including the drilling (april 2012) in the new JV with REC Borden Lake South.
The latest NR for Borden Lake was not bad at all. I am collecting some additional information (drill maps, etc) to try to understand the implication of the new drill results. I thought that Dave has done a thorough job in his reporting (methodical and factual). He also identified the significance of a group of drill results, which are a lot more comprehensive that the summary posted by Ted Niles on 14 March 2012 (it's a good summary, but there is more suff in the NR). I will spend a bit more time on the results and will report my tea-leaf reading later. My general impression is that the new drill info would increase BL resource significantly (we'll see if they can squeeze out another 2-4Moz, with the deposit open in all directions and higher grade with depth).
At the current Mkt Cap ($83M) PRB is grossly undervalued considering the $33M cash, BC, LSG JV, and Goldex Royalty. BC alone with its own DSO quality chromite (plus the deposit in the buffer zones on both sides of the claim boundaries) and the value of the real estate that CLF would need to transport the ore from the BT/BD mine would be worth more than $100M.
The above plus a potential increase in the PoG (it's has recovered about $12/oz this morning) my tea-leaft reading says PRB SP would go up from this floor level. Just too irresistible not to jump in.
Do your own DD and tea-leaf reading before diving in (of course, not with your grocery money or on margin...You would sleep better at night to play with the $ that you have in your hands,...and make sure that the "roof over the head" is not involved in this exercise).
goldhunter