Re: Compare Probe - PRB Total Value vs Market Cap
in response to
by
posted on
Feb 05, 2012 04:27AM
This is a follow-up to LTGoldBull's post. It's the same idea but with a different slicing.
1. Current Market Cap : $145M (63M shares at $2.28/s)
2. PRB holdings:
- cash: $33M, no debt (Corp Presentation). This item is easy to handle, just substract it from the Market Cap...Adjusted Market Cap = 145 - 33 = $112 M (w/o cash component)
- 45% JV with LSG (we are all waiting for that hole results). Let leave this asde for now
- 5% Goldex royalty...Ditto, leave this aside
- Black Creek: 10M tonnes of chromite of similar quality with BD (tonnage is about the same as KWG 30% of BD). Also, we should not forget the transportation access value for CLF. Their BT plan call for a transportation corridor, through PRB BC property, to the new proposed airstrip to the west, near the river, where CLF would also locate the residence for BT (or is it BD?) staff...plus other properites in the RoF area. Since 10 M tonnes of DSO chromite can be conveniently and profitably mined along with BD deposit a value of say $125 M for this for the sake of argument (different guess, anyone? noting that the value of the BC deposit is about the same as, or slightly less than, KWG 30% of BD. There are other factors such as the RR and how CLF would view the situation. I would tend to say that KWG's value for BD +RR is quite a bit more than PRB value for the BC property, but I would leave it there for others to jump in.
- Bordon Lake: 4.1M oz AuEq (conversion of Ag credit using ratio of 1700/35 = 50). In-situ value for the deposit: 4.1Moz x 1700 = $7B. On-the-ground value at 2.5% of $1700 oz = $175 M, noting 2.5% of 1700 = $42.5/oz Au. We can use that as a base case. The price for in-situ gold at BL could be higher, say $85/oz (that is x2 = $350M). Resource increase (including fold nose, etc) could give another factor x2 (i.e., an 8M oz deposit) or $350x2 = $750M. It would get better and better. This Borden Lake is really a wild card!
In summary, if we add the values of BC and BL up (not including LSG JV and Goldex royalty, plus other odds and ends) PRB net worth (excluding the $33M cash) would range from (125+175 = $300M to 125M +750 = $875M). 300/112 Adjusted Cap = 2.6; 875/112 = 7.8. A 5 bagger easily for PRB considering the average value of the two.
2.28x5 = $11.4/s. Sounds reasonable?
Please check my math (and approach) and let your imagination run wild while you watch Madonna at halftime.
goldhunter