Re: Head scratching here - our chromium...opinion!
in response to
by
posted on
Nov 10, 2010 12:05PM
In some cases the SP doesn't directly and proportionately reflect the material information that has been published. In this case the value of the resources is there, but the news is mitigated by a recent sharp increase in SP as well as speculation/trepidation about Cliffs' willingness to recognize it and factor it into a take-over opening bid price.
There is also the spill over effect on other ROF companies' SP if Cliffs comes in with a high bid which for intents and purposes would confirm the intrinsic value of the ROF even further, for the buyers who may be restrcited by the instituions' buying regulations and policies. The consequences for Cliffs would be costly if this kind of event drives up the SP of KWG.
Low volumes today, might also indicate that buyers are reluctant to hold positions for the long weekend coming up (many are taking Friday off following Rememberance Day) notwithsatnding the pull back due to reported margin calls yesterday. If any assumptions make sense... this situation seems like a scenario that Cliffs likes, given their offer for Spider during the infamous long weekend in May.
Let's also remember that the greatest demand for Chromium and other industrial / precious metals will most likely come from other regions of the world...not only North America. (i.e China, India, Japan not to mention the frontier markets that are just now gaining some traction from their neighbours' economic growth. (Vietnam, Cambodia, etc...)
50 to 150 years is a long time and who's to say that a gradual drop in price (because of supply) wouldn't initiate new and innovative uses for chromium, that were previously not feasible. Then what happens is an exchange of price for volume and the overall earnings are maintained for the resource owner.
Speculation is fun when there are a number of possible positive scenarios.
LP